Analysis of the status quo and development prospects of China's photovoltaic industry

China's photovoltaic industry has experienced a slow---explosive-type development process in recent years, and the scale of the industry has been expanding, both in terms of core technology, product manufacturing, equipment, market development, installation and service. Some industrial chains with certain independent intellectual property rights have reached the international leading level and occupy a pivotal position in the international market. As of 2010, there are 16 PV companies listed overseas; China's top 10 PV modules and polysilicon production accounted for 4 of them. In addition, with the acceleration of internationalization, many domestic enterprises have successively established factories in the United States and Canada. The high-quality and low-cost photovoltaic products have made great contributions to the rapid development of the global photovoltaic industry. This is a contribution of our photovoltaic industry to China's manufacturing industry, which gives the world a chance to re-understand China's manufacturing industry. In general, China's current PV industry development has the following characteristics: First, the industry scale, weak technology, uncoordinated development Currently, China has become an important production base for solar photovoltaic power generation, and gradually formed high-purity polysilicon manufacturing. The industrial chain of silicon ingots, silicon wafer production, solar cell manufacturing, photovoltaic module packaging and photovoltaic system applications has produced a group of leading international large-scale solar cell manufacturers. Although the scale of China's solar photovoltaic industry is currently ranked first in the world, the development of the industrial chain is not coordinated, and some industries are oversupply, and some industries are in short supply. In addition, the overall technology of the industry is weak. In the polysilicon production with the largest technical barriers in the entire PV industry chain, the major foreign manufacturers adopt the closed-end modified Siemens method, and this technology is still blank in China. Most of China's polysilicon producers use Russian polysilicon purification technology directly or indirectly, which has high production cost and high energy consumption, and is at a disadvantage in the entire international competition. Second, the equipment depends on imports, products rely on exports, development is restricted by the development of China's photovoltaic industry key technology equipment, market demand, raw materials are from abroad. The high-end equipment of the crystalline silicon solar cell production line still needs to be imported. The main production equipment of thin-film solar cells is still far from the foreign countries; some of the supporting materials for solar cells are more than 50% dependent on imports. At present, the total installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic power generation is only The global installed capacity of 1% is far from the strong capacity of the domestic PV industry. About 90% of China's solar cells rely on exports. As a result, the situation of raw materials and products at both ends is caused, which has constrained the rapid development of China's photovoltaic industry. Third, the rapid rise of the industry, development and fierce competition At present, China's photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly, and has been regionalized and clustered. The industrial chain has become complementary and economic cooperation, and the industrial competitiveness has achieved an overall improvement. From the perspective of the distribution area of ​​photovoltaic enterprises, five major sectors have been formed in the Bohai Sea, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, the Central Region and the Western Region. The Yangtze River Delta is the industry's growth pole in Jiangsu Province. It is mainly engaged in the production of photovoltaic cells and components in the middle and lower reaches. The industrial scale accounts for half of the country. The Bohai Sea is centered on Hebei, and it is mainly engaged in the production and processing of upstream materials. The industrial scale is second. The main gathering area is Hebei Ning. Jin, Baoding and Langfang; the Pearl River Delta takes Shenzhen as the core and focuses on the production of downstream applications; the central region is mainly Jiangxi, Hubei, and Hunan; the western region is mainly Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi and other provinces, focusing on the advantages of energy and minerals. The main upstream polysilicon raw material production can provide 10% of the country's raw materials. Due to the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry, the rapid decline in the manufacturing cost of photovoltaic products has brought about the development of global photovoltaic applications. With the decline of raw material prices, the improvement of battery conversion efficiency, and the increasing promotion and application of photovoltaic power generation in the world, the price of photovoltaic products has shown a rapid decline. Fourth, the company is blindly launched, the quality is difficult to protect, resulting in supply and demand illusion. Due to the good development prospects of the photovoltaic industry, some small investors have launched a group of small photovoltaic industry enterprises. They neglected energy conservation and environmental protection and product quality, forming a so-called competition. There has been a phenomenon of oversupply, which has created a temporary PV trough, but according to numerous domestic reports, the current PV trough has already caused a fatal blow to second- and third-tier PV companies. Last year, the market was so good, and small companies had to wait. The company sold the goods before they could sell the goods. Although the overall supply of photovoltaics this year is oversupply, if the share of small companies is removed from the total market supply, manufacturers of big brands are still less than demand for the market. The current "supply far exceeds demand" is a period of relatively short-term overcapacity. But this stage will be the "severe winter" of the second and third-tier photovoltaic enterprises. Of course, the "severe winter" is not far from the "warm spring", but the second and third-line photovoltaic enterprises are difficult to have the "severe winter" endurance, there will be a large part of small companies, Small businesses will be eliminated. Even if some small companies can barely compete in the competition, they should also strengthen their physical fitness in the process. There is also a need for a recovery process. In the end, the current status of China's photovoltaic industry is roughly: rapid industrial development, multiplication of enterprises, weak technical strength, different quality, constraints on raw materials and products, tight supply and demand, and fierce competition. However, because the photovoltaic industry is a new industry and is known as the “sunrise industry”, his development prospects and development space are unprecedented, with bright prospects and vast space. 1. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Notice on Printing and Distributing the Application Report for Polysilicon Industry Access, and required that the scale of new polysilicon projects must be greater than 3,000 tons/year. The National Development and Reform Commission also proposed that the scale of new polysilicon projects must be greater than 3,000 tons / year, the area of ​​less than 6 hectares / kilotons of polysilicon, solar-grade polysilicon reduction power consumption is less than 60 kWh / kg, silicon tetrachloride, hydrogen chloride in the reduction of tail gas, The hydrogen recovery rate is not less than 98.5%, 99%, and 99%. These measures fully demonstrate that the country has shifted from simple restrictions to actively promoting industrial restructuring, helping PV companies to better develop in the future market. 2. The development of photovoltaic enterprises in Europe and America has a new opportunity. Due to the Japanese nuclear accident, the German government officially announced the closure of the nuclear power plant before 2022. Subsequently, two Chinese banks announced their willingness to invest 10 billion US dollars (about 7 billion euros) to support Chinese PV panel manufacturers to develop the European market. Recently, Italy also held a referendum on the issue of nuclear power plants, proposing that it will no longer invest in nuclear power projects. These decisions have provided a good opportunity for the development of photovoltaic companies in Europe and the United States. In China, China's five major power groups are eager to try to capture the PV market. The mode of entry is also biased towards the “vertical integrated industrial chain” model. China Power Investment, Datang and Guodian have all proposed “polysilicon – solar cells”. Solar power generation is a full-scale intervention in the solar industry. 3. In Asia, especially China, it will be a potential market for the future development of the photovoltaic industry. The country is expected to be installed at the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, and the installed capacity of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation will be 5 million kilowatts. In addition to the scattered photovoltaic power generation project, the number of fashion machines will reach 10 million kilowatts. At present, only 1 million kilowatts are under construction, and the future will increase the installed capacity by 100-200 million kilowatts per year. ADB announced in May last year that it will support 3 million kilowatts of solar power applications in Asia, including large-scale solar power plants, rooftop photovoltaic systems, and independent photovoltaic systems in remote areas. To achieve this goal, ADB plans to arrange a $2.25 billion concessional loan within three years to drive a total of $9 billion in solar power construction investment. Ma Shenghong, director of the Research Center for Renewable Energy of the Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, predicts that from 2015 to 2020, China's thermal power generation industry will enter the initial stage of commercial operation, and solar thermal power generation projects will quickly enter regional development. China is becoming the most dynamic emerging photovoltaic industry market. 4, China's photovoltaic power generation fast energy storage technology has a new breakthrough in domestic policy and market also has a good turnaround performance, so that the once less optimistic photovoltaic industry highlights the first-line vitality, the domestic photovoltaic industry will usher in another major reason for rapid development It is a breakthrough in the bottleneck of existing grid-connected technologies. It is understood that energy storage technology is to convert electricity into other forms of energy and release it in the form of electricity when needed. This is an indispensable process for the photovoltaic industry to put into use. However, due to the short time for China's battery companies to enter photovoltaic capacity, energy storage technology has been difficult to break through, thus restricting the practical application and promotion of the photovoltaic industry. However, this situation has been improved by the efforts of the mass power generation and storage experts, and there has been a new breakthrough in power storage. Some battery companies, such as Chaowei, have been continuously upgraded and broken through the technical level. Their independent research and development of wind energy and solar energy storage colloidal lead-acid batteries have passed the national inspection and can fully enter the application field. It also goes hand in hand with international developed countries and is basically able to adapt to the needs of the rapidly growing emerging PV market. In summary, China's photovoltaic industry as a new industry has been developing at a high speed. At present, although it is experiencing a relatively surplus capacity stage. However, with the efforts of the industry to improve the technical level, break through technical barriers, and develop rationally; coupled with the government's macro-control, actively guide. China's photovoltaic industry is an inexhaustible source of energy, safety and inexhaustible energy. The future prospects are bright and bright, and the development space is extremely broad. Long-term development and unlimited potential will surely benefit all mankind.

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