International oil prices rose 0.9% to $99.53 on Thursday

The early morning news on December 23, Beijing time, on Thursday, including the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time last week, the final values ​​of the consumer confidence index in December, and multiple sets of U.S. economic data including the leading economic indicators in November were all better than market expectations. Crude oil prices also continued to be driven by the unexpectedly sharp drop in inventory data the previous day, with the main crude oil contract eventually closing at $99.53 a barrel.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the main crude oil contract in February rose 86 cents Thursday to close at 99.53 US dollars a barrel, an increase of 0.9%. This is already the main contract for the fourth consecutive trading day, closing up, this week, the cumulative increase has been close to 6%, Thursday also reached an intraday high of 100.05 US dollars a barrel.

Tom Bentz, head of BNP Paribas's preferred brokerage firm, pointed out, “This is basically a continuation of the gains of the past few days. Yesterday’s inventory data psychologically gave market participants a bull market expectation, plus consumer confidence. Both the index and the job market conditions in the previous week were more positive than expected."

On Wednesday, the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency reported that the crude oil inventories last week ended on December 16 had a sharp drop of 10.6 million barrels, which was much higher than the market’s expected reduction of 225 million barrels. Crude oil prices rose 1.5% to US$98.67 a barrel driven by possible tightening concerns.

The recent trend has also led to a further narrowing of the spread between the New York oil contract and West Texas Crude Oil and the European benchmark contract, Intercontinental Exchange London Brent crude oil contract. The London Brent crude ** contract fell 1% Wednesday, down 92 cents to $ 107.71 a barrel, and rose slightly to $ 107.89 a barrel on Thursday.

Some analysts pointed out that the sharp decline in crude oil inventories is likely to be related to seasonal factors, as well as weather-related factors, or some of the more short-term factors that are not necessary signs of increased demand for crude oil. These analyses suggest that delays in shipping delivery caused by the continued heavy fog on the Houston Canal are an important reason for this.

An analyst from Commerzbank also stated that "there is also a situation where some hidden crude oil stocks exist and they want to avoid the tax audits of crude oil inventories at the end of Louisiana and Texas." Tom Bentz also agreed, he said , "The more substantial drop in crude oil inventories in the next few weeks will not be too surprising." But he also pointed out that the data of the past few years also shows that the stocks that fell in December are in the second In January of the year, there was a large-scale return.

Today's economic data provides sufficient upward momentum for commodities, industrial metals, and the stock market index. According to data from the US Department of Labor, in the week ending December 17th, the number of U.S. applicants for unemployment benefits decreased by 4,000, and the total number came to the lowest level of 364,000 since April 2008. This result is much better than Market expectations; final values ​​of December consumer confidence index announced by Thomson Reuters and Michigan Union increased from 64.1 points in November to 69.9 points; the same data for November’s leading economic indicators from the nonprofit US Bureau of Economic Consultancy There are positive results that are better than market expectations.

In other energy products, February's formula gasoline contract rose 2 cents on Thursday to close at 2.64 US dollars per gallon, or 0.6%; February distillate fuel oil closed at 2.91 US dollars per gallon, almost equal to Wednesday's closing price.

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency released the latest gas inventory report on Thursday, which showed that in the week ending December 16th, natural gas inventories fell by 100 billion cubic feet, as market surveys showed, and inventory fell by 99.9 billion U.S. dollars. Cubic feet to 103 billion cubic feet below the analyst's forecast range. The report also pointed out that the current natural gas inventory is 235 billion cubic feet higher than the same period of last year and it is 387 billion cubic feet higher than the five-year average.

Tim Evans, analyst at Citigroup's Outlook Division, pointed out that some analysts predict that there will be more than 105 billion cubic feet of inventory reduction last week, "after the favorable market over the past few weeks, the expected results, Many market players seem to be overly optimistic about the projections.” He believes that “almost the entire North American region is warming to previous weather forecast results, coupled with recent changes in inventory, future natural gas prices will be a downward trend.”

The January natural gas contract rose 1 cent on Thursday to close at 3.17 dollars per million British thermal units, an increase of 0.4%.

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