On January 20th, the Ministry of Commerce of China announced its final decision regarding the import of solar-grade polysilicon from the United States and South Korea. Effective immediately, imports of polysilicon originating from these two countries will be subject to anti-dumping duties ranging from 2.4% to 57%, as well as countervailing duties between 0% and 2.1%. This move comes after a comprehensive investigation into alleged unfair trade practices.
Industry experts have noted that while U.S.-produced polysilicon will face significant barriers to direct entry into the Chinese market, it may still find ways to enter through processing trade or entrepot trade. Despite the high "double anti" tariffs, the oversupply in the domestic market is expected to keep prices stable, making it difficult for any sharp increases in the short term.
The investigation concluded that imported solar-grade polysilicon from both the U.S. and South Korea was being dumped and subsidized, causing substantial harm to China’s domestic industry. As a result, the State Council's Tariff Commission has implemented the duties, aligning with the findings of the investigation authority.
Notably, the anti-dumping duties imposed on South Korean polysilicon are significantly lower than those on U.S. products. While some South Korean companies face rates up to 48.7%, most are within the range of 2.4% to 12.3%. In contrast, U.S. producers face higher rates, reaching up to 57%.
This decision follows the preliminary ruling in July 2013, which had already set similar dumping margins. The final outcome reflects a consistent stance by China in addressing what it views as unfair trade practices.
Experts suggest that the U.S. and South Korea may attempt to bypass these restrictions by using processing and re-export trade channels. According to data from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, imports of polysilicon remained high even after the preliminary rulings, with over 72,000 tons imported in the first 11 months of 2013.
Wang Shijiang, an expert from the China Electronics and Information Industry Development Institute, pointed out that although the high anti-dumping duties make direct entry difficult, U.S. polysilicon could still enter via processing trade. He also highlighted that this measure is part of China's counter-strategy against the U.S.'s ongoing "double anti" investigation into Chinese photovoltaic modules.
Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, emphasized the need for the government to regulate the influx of polysilicon through processing trade. Additionally, imports via Taiwan have risen, raising concerns about potential new methods of circumventing trade barriers.
Despite a slight recovery in 2013, the polysilicon industry continues to face pressure due to low prices and oversupply. Although some enterprises resumed production, the demand from downstream sectors has not kept pace. Prices only saw a modest increase from 120,000 yuan/ton to 135,000 yuan/ton by the end of 2013.
Looking ahead, experts predict that polysilicon imports in 2014 will be around 40,000 tons, while domestic production is expected to reach 100,000 tons. With total demand estimated at 140,000 tons, the market remains highly competitive.
Wang Shijiang further explained that domestic prices in 2014 are unlikely to rise sharply. Factors such as oversupply, declining PV subsidies, and technological advancements in international production all contribute to this outlook. Additionally, the ability of U.S. and South Korean polysilicon to enter through alternative trade routes continues to challenge China's efforts to control the market.
In summary, while China has taken strong measures against unfair imports, the long-term impact on domestic prices remains uncertain due to a combination of economic, technical, and trade-related factors.
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