China’s anti-tax polysilicon price for the United States and South Korea is still difficult to rise

On January 20, the Ministry of Commerce announced its final decision regarding the import of solar-grade polysilicon from the United States and South Korea. From this point onward, imports of solar-grade polysilicon originating in these two countries will be subject to anti-dumping duties ranging from 2.4% to 57%, as well as countervailing duties between 0% and 2.1%. This move comes after a long investigation into allegations of unfair trade practices by U.S. and South Korean producers. Industry experts suggest that while direct entry of U.S.-produced polysilicon into the Chinese market will become more challenging due to the high tariffs, it may still find ways to enter through processing trade or entrepot trade. Despite the imposition of significant "double anti" duties, the oversupply in China's domestic polysilicon market is expected to limit any substantial price increases in the near future. The ruling follows a preliminary decision made in July 2013, which had already indicated similar dumping margins for both countries. The final decision largely aligns with these initial findings, confirming that the Chinese polysilicon industry suffered material injury due to the dumping and subsidies from the U.S. and South Korea. China’s response to the U.S. “double anti” investigation on Chinese photovoltaic modules has been a strategic countermeasure. In 2011, the U.S. launched an investigation into Chinese PV cells, leading to steep tariffs on imports. Since then, mainland manufacturers have increasingly turned to importing components from Taiwan to bypass these restrictions. Now, China is taking similar steps against U.S. and South Korean polysilicon, aiming to protect its domestic industry. Experts estimate that the U.S. and South Korean polysilicon could circumvent the new duties by using processing and re-export trade methods, potentially reaching an import volume of around 40,000 tons in 2014. Reports also show that in November 2013, a significant portion of polysilicon imports entered via processing trade, highlighting the growing reliance on such methods. According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China imported approximately 72,000 tons of polysilicon from January to November 2013, with an estimated annual total of 79,000 tons. This suggests that foreign dumping remains a serious issue even after the preliminary rulings were announced. Looking ahead, analysts believe that domestic polysilicon prices in 2014 will remain under pressure. Several factors contribute to this outlook: continued oversupply, reduced demand from the downstream photovoltaic sector, declining PV subsidies, and ongoing technological advancements that lower production costs globally. Additionally, despite the high anti-dumping duties, the U.S. and South Korean polysilicon may still find ways to enter the Chinese market through alternative trade channels. In summary, while China has taken strong measures to defend its polysilicon industry, the challenges posed by global competition and internal supply dynamics are likely to keep prices stable or even push them downward in the short term.

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