The photovoltaic industry looms over the crisis and becomes a bottleneck in development

● Financial subsidies become the driving force
● Overcapacity needs to be vigilant
China's photovoltaic industry ushered in a new wave of expansion at the end of the year.

On December 2, the Ministry of Finance and other four departments jointly promoted the large-scale application of domestic photovoltaic power generation, and subsidized 50% of the key equipment in the Golden Sun Demonstration Project and the Solar Photovoltaic Building Application Demonstration Project according to the bid-winning agreement price.

A number of listed companies have increased their investment in the photovoltaic industry. Data show that in 2009, domestic PV battery and module shipments will be 4GW (gigawatts), and in 2010 it will exceed 7GW, an increase of more than 75%. In 2009, China's PV production accounted for 40% of the world's total, and will account for 50% in 2010.

Industry experts said that behind the frenzy of photovoltaic companies' massive expansion, the bubble has already appeared. A person from the China Renewable Energy Society said that the current production capacity has far exceeded the market development speed, and there will be excess in the second half of next year. If it is serious, it will lead to the collapse of many small and medium-sized enterprises, and the sales of large factories may also be affected.

Interest chase
Since the beginning of this year, many PV companies have handed over beautiful “transcripts”. According to the three quarterly report of Wuxi Suntech, total PV shipments in the third quarter increased by 107.1% compared with the same period of last year and 25.3% over the previous quarter. Shipments in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010 are expected to increase by at least 10% from the previous quarter. Suntech's goal is to ship more than 1.5 GW of solar energy products in 2010, a year-on-year increase of at least 113% and a production capacity of 1.8 GW.

At the same time, Yingli New Energy's third quarterly report was also remarkable. In the third quarter of 2010, the total net revenue was $490.9 million, an increase of 21.7% from the second quarter of this year. It is estimated that the annual shipments of Yingli New Energy PV modules will reach 1.02GW to 1.04GW in 2010, an increase of 94.2% to 98.0%.

It is precisely because of such a brilliant performance that attracts the influx of followers. Dongfang Risheng announced on November 9 that it plans to invest 830 million yuan to build a “technical transformation project of 300MW (million watts) solar cell production line per year”.

On November 4th, Aerospace said that it is planned to invest in the “200MW high-efficiency solar cell production line technical transformation project” based on the completed 150MW cell production line.

It is worth mentioning that even Jiangsu Hongbao, whose main business is hardware, is also rushing to eat this “cake”. The company said on October 15 that it plans to invest 92.75 million yuan with other companies to set up a joint venture of 175 million yuan to invest in the construction of 300MW solar crystalline silicon wafers and 100MW components.

"The reason why many companies are eager to expand their production capacity, in addition to pursuing immediate interests, is to consider the prospects of the domestic PV market. At present, the domestic market demand has not yet been developed, and the company intends to seize the opportunities." Analyst of China Merchants Productivity Promotion Center Song Liang pointed out to the reporter of International Finance News.

In the view of Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center of Xiamen University, "the photovoltaic industry is very risky, and it is causing the influx of parties. It is just a concept of speculation."

Excess crisis
Relevant data show that China's PV production capacity will exceed 8G W this year, accounting for more than 40% of the world, and next year's production capacity will exceed 10G W. However, more than 95% of China's PV products are exported to foreign markets, especially for the European market. Today, such reliance is no longer going to work.

From July 1 this year, Germany's subsidies for rooftop photovoltaic systems and removal of farmland farm facilities will be reduced by 13%, subsidies for conversion areas will be reduced by 8%, and other regions will be reduced by 12%. From October 1 this year, the total subsidy is further reduced by 3%.

In August, Spain plans to cut solar feed-in tariffs by 45%, and on-grid tariffs for large rooftop solar PV installations will fall by 25%, while small ones will fall by 5%. In September, the Czech Republic issued a policy stipulating that in March next year, solar power plants built on agricultural land will no longer receive government subsidies and are expected to reduce investment in 700MW solar power plants. In the same month, Italy decided to cut subsidies for solar photovoltaic projects on December 31.

To make matters worse, on October 15, the US government announced that it accepted the application of the American Iron and Steel Workers Federation to launch an investigation into China's clean energy-related policies in accordance with Article 301 of the US Trade Law.

"European countries have cut PV subsidies, and the demand for PV market will become very uncertain next year. According to the expansion speed of domestic PV manufacturers, overcapacity will become inevitable in the next year." Lin Boqiang told reporters. The National Energy Administration had previously predicted that China’s cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics could reach 600MW this year, doubling the growth. However, compared with the estimated production of 7000MW to 8000MW in China this year, the demand is less than 10% of the output.

Song Liang told reporters that the current surplus of the photovoltaic industry can only be said to be a relative surplus, and domestic demand has not yet started to exacerbate the risk of excess. "However, tapping the domestic market is not a day to be made. Short-term overcapacity will still impact the entire industry. As the market shrinks, competition will become increasingly fierce, resulting in lower corporate profits and even a risk of loss."

Policy Support
In the context of reducing subsidies in Germany and Spain, and the US launch of the 301 survey on China's new energy industry, how to start the domestic market has become the focus of hot debate in the industry.

In order to attract enterprises to pay attention to the domestic market, the central government issued subsidies or preferential policies to the Chinese PV industry. On December 2, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the four ministries of the National Energy Administration jointly held a meeting to clearly indicate that they should increase policy support, vigorously promote the scale application of domestic photovoltaic power generation, and strive to be domestically in China after 2012. The application scale is not less than 1000MW.

At the same time, the conference announced the first batch of 13 photovoltaic power generation centralized application demonstration zones, and issued a series of documents to support photovoltaic applications. Among them, the central government will provide 50% subsidy for key equipment according to the bid-winning agreement price, and other expenses will be subsidized by 4 yuan/W and 6 yuan/W for different project types.

"This is a strong signal. We must vigorously launch the domestic market, so that the share of photovoltaic power generation in the national energy supply has increased significantly." Zhang Shaochun, deputy minister of finance, stressed at the meeting that it is necessary to accelerate the concentration of funds through financial subsidies. Demonstration, establish an effective photovoltaic power generation business model.

In this regard, Lin Boqiang pointed out that starting the domestic market and solving the problem of on-grid tariffs is the key. In the absence of these key issues, it is important to be alert to the risk of overheating. "Although solar energy is a green energy source, polysilicon will cause serious pollution to the environment during the production process. The problem of high energy consumption and high emissions remains to be solved, and the introduction of environmental taxes is necessary."

Song Liang pointed out that if the domestic market can provide more than 1000MW, it still has certain significance for buffering the turmoil in overseas markets. "In the future, the state should further promote energy price reforms, and enterprises will continue to improve their technology, reduce costs, make profits, and better develop the domestic market."

In fact, the State Grid is planning to introduce relevant measures for the shortcomings of accessing the Internet. The State Grid will further standardize and simplify the grid-connecting procedures, improve relevant technical standards and management systems, and provide grid-connected services to project units in a timely manner. In addition, the government will also establish a “new mechanism for fiscal-technical linkage” to start the market through the implementation of demonstration projects, promote the industrialization and scale of scientific and technological achievements, and continuously reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation, and realize the “fair price” of photovoltaic power generation as soon as possible.

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600

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1500

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1000

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2000

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50*100

1200

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1000

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1000

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800

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500

1200*800*840

1150*770*700

6

50*100

600

1200*800*890

1150*770*750

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1000

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6

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600

6

50*100

400

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800

 

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