In recent years, China's economy has continued to grow rapidly, which is the result of rapid growth in both export and domestic consumption. There is no shortage of consumer demand in China's economic development. However, China's exports are constrained by insufficient demand in the international market, and the space for expansion in the future is shrinking. China's economic development model needs to be driven from external demand to domestic demand. At present, China's per capita GDP has reached the global middle-income level. The future expansion of consumer demand and the huge increase in consumption structure are good opportunities for realizing the transformation of China's economic growth demand pattern. Expanding domestic consumer demand and enhancing the sustainability of rapid growth in consumer demand need to start with increasing household income, narrowing the income gap, and improving the consumer environment. 　 First, there is no shortage of consumer demand in China's current economic development. Investment, consumption and exports are the three major demand factors driving economic growth. Among them, investment is a demand factor in the short term and a supply factor in the long run. From the perspective of demand determinism, the size and structure of investment demand depends on the size and structure of consumer demand and exports. Therefore, fundamentally, the basic demand for determining economic growth is consumption and exports. Since 2000, China's economy has continued to grow rapidly. The nominal GDP (expenditure method) increased by 14.91% annually during the period 2001-2009. This sustained high growth rate is achieved by the double growth of both consumption and exports. During 2001-2009, China's nominal final consumption and exports (calculated in local currency) increased by 11.63% and 16.58% respectively. With the rapid growth of consumption and exports, the total capital formation grew at an average annual rate of 18.82%. Comparing and analyzing the GDP growth of China, the United States, Japan, India and South Korea, it can be seen that consumption and export growth are the decisive factors for economic growth. During 2001-2009, China and India maintained rapid growth in consumption and exports. The nominal growth rate of the two economies was much higher than the nominal GDP growth of the United States, Japan and South Korea. At the same time, the growth rate of capital formation in China and India is much higher than the growth of total capital formation in the United States, Japan and South Korea. It is important to emphasize that the nominal growth rate of total capital formation in China and India is higher than the nominal growth rate of GDP, the nominal growth rate of GDP is higher than the nominal growth rate of final consumption, and the final consumption growth rate of the United States, Japan and South Korea is higher than The nominal growth rate of GDP and the nominal growth rate of GDP are higher than the nominal growth rate of total capital formation. This phenomenon is caused by the differences in the economic development stages and economic structures of various countries and is a reflection of the objective laws of economic operations. China and India's economy is in the stage of rapid industrialization, and the improvement of export structure and consumption structure, especially the demand for heavy chemical products, has increased the multiplier acceleration of China's and India's economies (consumption-based demand and consumption). The investment required is higher. However, the United States, Japan and South Korea have all entered the developed stage. The improvement of the consumption structure of residents is mainly reflected in the increase in the proportion of service consumption, the relatively small demand for investment, the lower the multiplier acceleration of the US, Japan and South Korea, and the unit base demand (consumption). Increases in exports and exports require less investment. In short, China's economy has been able to sustain rapid growth since 2000, which is driven by the rapid growth of both domestic consumption and exports. The sustained and rapid growth of China's consumption is the result of China's income level reaching the global middle income level and the rapid expansion of consumer demand. It also shows that there is no such problem of insufficient domestic demand in China's economic development. At the same time of rapid consumption growth, China's investment rate is high and consumption rate is low. It is only a concrete manifestation of the inherent law of China's current economic development. Because China's high investment rate and low consumption rate, China's economic development has insufficient consumer demand. There is no scientific basis. Second, China's export share is still in a period of continuous improvement, but the room for improvement is shrinking. The proportion of China's exports to global exports has entered a period of rapid improvement since 1990, from 1.8% in 1990 to 3.86% in 2000. After joining the WTO. Entering the accelerated phase of upgrading, it will increase to 9.62% in 2009, which is close to the historical peak of Japan and Germany's exports accounting for the proportion of global exports. From the development history of Japan and Germany, China's export share has potential for further improvement, but the room for improvement is shrinking. China's population is much larger than the United States, Japan and Germany. The per capita income level is still at a low level. In 2009, the per capita GDP was only 3,785 US dollars, slightly higher than the per capita GDP of the global middle-income countries in 2009 (3,344 US dollars). Even in terms of purchasing power parity, China's per capita GDP in 2009 was only 6407.84 US dollars, which is only equivalent to 64% of the global average in 2009 (10,706.19 US dollars), 54% of middle-income countries (US$1,273.09), and high-income countries (36518.16). 19% of the dollar). Lower income levels mean that China's future economic growth potential is still huge. As a populous country, the rapid economic development can create a huge international trade flow. The proportion of China's import and export trade in global trade will further increase. In particular, the proportion of exports to global exports will exceed the historical peaks of Germany and Japan. However, subject to the relatively limited size of the international market, the scope and space for future enhancement will continue to shrink, and the role of exports in China's economic growth will gradually weaken. The rapid increase in the proportion of exports from Japan and Germany to global exports lasted for about 25 years, and the rapid increase in China’s exports accounted for 20 years. According to the estimation of the proportion of Japan and Germany, the proportion of China's exports to global exports reached a historical peak around 2015. Once China's exports accounted for the peak of global share, China's export growth rate will return to the average growth rate of global exports. According to the average annual growth rate of global exports from 1948 to 2009, the export growth rate will be adjusted back to a low growth of about 10% after 2015, which is only about half of the average annual export growth rate from 2000 to 2009. That is, after 2015, the contribution of exports to China’s economic growth will fall by half. III. Paths and Policy Choices for Realizing the Transformation of China's Economic Growth Demand Model Faced with the challenge of China's exports accounting for the peak of global exports and the trend of export growth tending to decline, China's economy must maintain sustained and rapid development, and the fundamental choice is to expand domestic consumption demand. To achieve the transformation of economic growth from external demand to domestic demand. (1) The key to realizing the transformation of demand mode is to expand the economic growth model driven by the dual demand of domestic and foreign demand. Once the external demand declines, the economic growth rate will be adjusted back, and the income of domestic residents will also decline, which will eventually lead to domestic consumption demand and investment. The decline in demand, it is easy to form a vicious circle of “decreased growth of external demand → decline in economic growth → decline in household income → decline in consumption → decline in economic growth → further decline in economic growthâ€. The key to breaking this vicious circle is to contain Declining consumer demand and stabilizing domestic investment demand. In order to realize the transformation of China's economic growth from the external demand to the domestic demand-driven development model, the key lies in how to maintain the sustained and steady growth of domestic consumer demand, and gradually expand domestic consumption demand and increase consumer demand to promote economic growth. Weaken the impact of external demand on economic growth and slow down the impact of the decline in future external demand growth on China's economic development. (II) Expanding domestic consumption demand needs to start from three aspects From the experience of various countries, the income level is in the period of middle income to high income development, which is the stage of rapid expansion of consumption scale and substantial upgrading of consumption structure. At present, China's per capita GDP has reached the global middle-income level. In recent years, China's consumption has entered a state of sustained rapid growth, and the future expansion of consumer demand and the growth of consumption structure are huge. At present, China's export share has not yet peaked. In the next 5-15 years, the export growth rate tends to decline, but there is still the possibility of maintaining a rapid growth of around 10%. It is time to seize the rapid expansion of domestic consumption and the continuous upgrading of structure. To enhance the sustainability of rapid growth in domestic consumer demand is the key to realizing the transformation of China's economic growth demand pattern. Expanding domestic consumer demand and enhancing the sustainability of rapid growth in consumer demand need to start with increasing household income, narrowing the income gap, and improving the consumer environment. 1. Increasing the income of residents is the fundamental way to expand domestic consumption demand. Residents' income is the decisive factor of household consumption expenditure. The fundamental way to expand consumer demand is to increase the disposable income of residents and increase their consumption power. At present, the proportion of labor compensation in China is low, and the business surplus is higher than GDP. For example, in 2007, the proportion of labor compensation in China was only 39.7%, and the operating surplus accounted for 31.3%. In 2007, Japan’s employee income accounted for national income. The proportion of the company is as high as 76.3%, and the income of entrepreneurs (after the income distribution of enterprises) is only 19.8%. To improve the income of Chinese residents and expand consumer demand, we need to start from reforming factor prices and improving the pattern of primary income distribution, and reasonably increase the proportion of workers' compensation to primary distribution. 2. Increase the adjustment of secondary income distribution and narrow the income gap. Maintaining a moderate income gap is a necessary condition to encourage labor enthusiasm and improve social efficiency. However, excessive income disparity will also reduce social efficiency and curb consumer demand growth. At present, the income gap in China is too large. Not only the income gap between urban and rural areas continues to widen, but the income gap between different income groups within urban and rural residents is also expanding. The increase in income of high-income groups will stimulate the expansion of consumer demand for high-end consumer goods, which is conducive to the development of emerging industries. However, the consumption tendency of low-income groups is much larger than that of high-income groups. The income gap is too large, leading to demand disruption, and inhibiting high-end consumer goods to ordinary consumer goods and emerging industries. The process of transformation to the pillar industry is not conducive to economic growth. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the adjustment of secondary income distribution, and reduce the income gap between urban and rural areas and between different income groups by increasing transfer payments. 3. Improve the social security system and the government housing security mechanism to improve the consumer environment. The imperfect social security system is an important institutional obstacle that restricts the expansion of consumption by urban and rural residents. To expand consumer demand, we need to speed up the establishment of a social security system covering urban and rural areas and improve the level of security. We also need to increase the construction and supply of government affordable housing, and eliminate the worries of consumers' difficulties in housing, difficult medical care, difficulty in going to school, and difficulty in raising old people. Consumer expectations.
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