In recent years, driven by the tide of low-carbon economy, the solar photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly. As a material used in the photovoltaic industry, the sales market of silicon carbide, especially green silicon carbide, is extremely hot, which has led many people in the abrasives industry to pay special attention to silicon carbide. industry. In the autumn 2010 national abrasives industry information exchange and the small component meeting of the 52nd China Corundum Silicon Carbide Fair, the silicon carbide sub-site changed the normal situation of the past and other sub-conferences, the pressure-bearing corundum, abrasive tools The breakout venue became the most popular and most discussed venue. At the meeting, Sun Yi, Chairman of Zhongping Nenghua Group Yicheng New Materials Co., Ltd. made a systematic analysis of the development prospects of the silicon carbide industry.
I. Development status of silicon carbide industry
Large amount
China is a major producer and exporter of silicon carbide. In 2009, the total output of silicon carbide reached about 535,000 tons, accounting for 56.3% of the global total, ranking first in the world. We expect that only green silicon carbide production will reach 800,000 tons by the end of 2010.
Low added value
The silicon carbide industry has a large output but is not competitive. Despite the sufficient supply, most of the silicon carbide products made in China are low-end and preliminary processing, and there is a big gap between the supply of high value-added finished products and deep processed products for certain needs. In particular, the supply of high-performance engineering ceramics and high-end abrasive powders is far from satisfactory, and most of the core technologies are still controlled by Japan. Mainly rely on imports to make up for the shortcomings of the domestic market.
The photovoltaic industry drives opportunities
With the depletion of traditional mineral energy, the photovoltaic industry represented by solar cells has developed rapidly. According to the "Emerging Energy Industry Development Plan" being developed by China, by 2020, the proportion of renewable energy consumption in primary energy consumption will reach 15%, and the development trend of photovoltaic industry will generally rise steadily.
Silicon carbide is the upstream part of the photovoltaic industry chain – a special material in the production process of crystalline silicon wafers. Driven by the development of the photovoltaic industry, the silicon carbide industry has brought some opportunities through product structure upgrade and expansion of downstream demand.
Uncertainty
Despite this, because silicon carbide production is high energy consumption, high pollution, hindered by energy shortages and national energy conservation policies, there are some specific reviews and approvals for new projects being idle. For example, policies related to low electricity prices have been cancelled. At present, the state strictly controls new projects, and the original smelting of silicon carbide below 6300KVA requires mandatory shutdown. Therefore, the future development of the silicon carbide industry will face many uncertainties.
Second, the analysis of the competitive landscape of silicon carbide industry
1. The external economic environment
The economic situation is improving
According to the latest statistics of the World Bank, the Chinese economy is expected to provide a good external development environment for the development of the silicon carbide industry following the success of the “Bauba†under the impact of the international financial crisis in 2009. Under the circumstance that the world economy is gradually improving and the basic orientation of the current macroeconomic policy remains unchanged, 2010 will continue the good momentum of rapid economic growth in the second half of 2009. According to experts' predictions, during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, economic policies will remain stable and tight, and economic development will not change. The upward slope will be adjusted, and it will continue to be stable and steady in constant adjustment.
Industry policy tightens
According to the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€, the energy consumption per unit of GDP has been reduced by about 20%. The national energy conservation work has made positive progress. In the first four years, the national unit GDP energy consumption has decreased by 15.61%, but due to high energy consumption in some places. The high-emissions industry has grown too fast. In the first half of this year, the national energy consumption per unit of GDP has not risen by 0.09% year-on-year. The energy consumption per unit of GDP in seven localities has also risen. The situation is very severe and the task is even more arduous.
Low carbon economy dominates green GDP
Under the guidance of the concept of sustainable development, the development of low-carbon economy through various means such as technological innovation, institutional innovation, industrial transformation, and new energy development, and the pursuit of green GDP have become the Chinese government's commitment to the whole society. In order to ensure the realization of the “Eleventh Five-Year†energy conservation and emission reduction targets, the State Council recently requested all regions to further increase their efforts, mainly requiring all localities to resolutely shut down and phase out backward production capacity, and strictly limit the excessive growth of high-energy-consuming and high-emission industries. The aim is to improve the quality and efficiency of economic development.
2. Analysis elements
Advantage
The domestic market has relatively cheap labor resources; the current silicon carbide preparation technology is mature and resource-rich; the silicon carbide industry has begun to take a cluster development trend.
Disadvantage
The scale of the industry is still too small, and the anti-risk ability of policies and funds is poor; the industry order needs to be further regulated, restricting the overall healthy development of the industry; the exchange of industry on key technologies and long-term development is still insufficient.
opportunity
Silicon carbide is widely used, and more and more new markets are waiting to be developed. The new field represented by wire cutting is leading the upgrading of the silicon carbide industry. With the improvement of the international and Chinese economic situation, the silicon carbide industry will also usher. Certain development opportunities need to be noted that the state's control over the environment will be more stringent.
Threat
The development of technologies for new uses of silicon carbide is accelerating, and alternative technologies are appearing in large numbers. The solar photovoltaic industry is still in a rapid growth period, and there are many technologies in fierce competition. Currently, crystalline silicon cells occupy a leading position in market share, but other technologies are also rapidly evolving. If the silicon crystal battery is regarded as the first generation battery technology, there will be two or three generations of battery technologies such as inorganic thin film batteries and thin film batteries. Battery technology will develop toward higher power generation efficiency, which is a trend. An alternative to the current silicon wafer cutting technology is Meyer Berg's diamond wire sawing technology (Diamond Wire). It is understood that there are 15 or so wafer manufacturers in cooperation with Meyer Berg. In the second round of testing, Japan’s AU Optronics announced that it has adopted the technology to achieve mass production. Meyer Berg also predicted that in 2011-13, one-third of the customers in the market will switch to diamond inline saws. In addition, the current silicon wafer cutting companies have already recycled waste mortar, and this measure can reduce the cost of cutting fluid and silicon carbide micro-powder by at least 50%. With the improvement of recycling technology, it is possible to realize the recovery of the recovered liquid, the recovered sand and the new liquid, and the new sand in a ratio of 1:1, which greatly reduces the production cost of the silicon wafer, and enables the silicon wafer cutting manufacturer to recover the waste mortar since 2009. More and more willing to accept, therefore, this will make the silicon carbide industry face severe challenges.
The silicon carbide industry itself is a low-profit industry. Currently, it is affected by many factors. It is expected that the industry's profits will further decline.
3. Internal competition in the silicon carbide industry
The industry's entry threshold is relatively low, and a large number of enterprises and capitals are influx, resulting in a large number of enterprises, small scale, relatively scattered, and low bargaining power. Only the industry can return to the expense of resources, relying on scale and cost. The original development mode, not to pursue the scientific development model relying on scientific and technological progress and management innovation, to disrupt the market with low-quality and low-cost products, in exchange for its short-term survival and development, has seriously affected the normal development trend of the industry and downstream photovoltaic Innovative development of the industry. Affected by national policy regulation, prices of oil and electricity rose, leading to an increase in the price of silicon carbide in the first half of 2010. The price increase of raw materials is also related to natural disasters this year. The weather is not normal, resulting in the reduction of raw materials. The actual industry profit margin is still low.
In summary, the silicon carbide industry faces certain development opportunities, but the focus will be on high-tech, high value-added. The scale of the silicon carbide industry is small and the competition in the industry is disorderly. To this end, it is necessary to strengthen exchanges with the industry, unite and win-win, and improve the overall risk resistance of the industry. China's control over the environment will tend to be strict, and it is a question that all peers must think together. The profit margin of the silicon carbide industry is declining, requiring us to further strengthen technical exchanges and technical cooperation between peers. On the basis of existing industry associations, we will adopt a more close cooperation approach, complement each other's advantages, and take the road of international development of industrialization and clustering.
Third, the silicon carbide industry outlook
technology
To solve the pressures of resources and environment in development, the silicon carbide industry should focus on technology to lead the industry. In the production of silicon carbide, attention is paid to the green and low carbonization of manufacturing. Relying on technological upgrading, increasing production scale, using scale advantages to reduce unit energy consumption; focusing on production processes such as silicon carbide recovery, dust treatment, and water recycling, etc., to reduce resource utilization.
market
According to our forecast, it is estimated that in 2010, the demand for green silicon carbide blocks will exceed 1.2 million tons. Refractory materials and abrasives are traditional low-end applications of silicon carbide, with low added value. Silicon carbide itself is widely used. Strengthening the development of new applications and new application markets and broadening business ideas are the healthy development of the silicon carbide industry in the future. only way.
I. Development status of silicon carbide industry
Large amount
China is a major producer and exporter of silicon carbide. In 2009, the total output of silicon carbide reached about 535,000 tons, accounting for 56.3% of the global total, ranking first in the world. We expect that only green silicon carbide production will reach 800,000 tons by the end of 2010.
Low added value
The silicon carbide industry has a large output but is not competitive. Despite the sufficient supply, most of the silicon carbide products made in China are low-end and preliminary processing, and there is a big gap between the supply of high value-added finished products and deep processed products for certain needs. In particular, the supply of high-performance engineering ceramics and high-end abrasive powders is far from satisfactory, and most of the core technologies are still controlled by Japan. Mainly rely on imports to make up for the shortcomings of the domestic market.
The photovoltaic industry drives opportunities
With the depletion of traditional mineral energy, the photovoltaic industry represented by solar cells has developed rapidly. According to the "Emerging Energy Industry Development Plan" being developed by China, by 2020, the proportion of renewable energy consumption in primary energy consumption will reach 15%, and the development trend of photovoltaic industry will generally rise steadily.
Silicon carbide is the upstream part of the photovoltaic industry chain – a special material in the production process of crystalline silicon wafers. Driven by the development of the photovoltaic industry, the silicon carbide industry has brought some opportunities through product structure upgrade and expansion of downstream demand.
Uncertainty
Despite this, because silicon carbide production is high energy consumption, high pollution, hindered by energy shortages and national energy conservation policies, there are some specific reviews and approvals for new projects being idle. For example, policies related to low electricity prices have been cancelled. At present, the state strictly controls new projects, and the original smelting of silicon carbide below 6300KVA requires mandatory shutdown. Therefore, the future development of the silicon carbide industry will face many uncertainties.
Second, the analysis of the competitive landscape of silicon carbide industry
1. The external economic environment
The economic situation is improving
According to the latest statistics of the World Bank, the Chinese economy is expected to provide a good external development environment for the development of the silicon carbide industry following the success of the “Bauba†under the impact of the international financial crisis in 2009. Under the circumstance that the world economy is gradually improving and the basic orientation of the current macroeconomic policy remains unchanged, 2010 will continue the good momentum of rapid economic growth in the second half of 2009. According to experts' predictions, during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, economic policies will remain stable and tight, and economic development will not change. The upward slope will be adjusted, and it will continue to be stable and steady in constant adjustment.
Industry policy tightens
According to the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€, the energy consumption per unit of GDP has been reduced by about 20%. The national energy conservation work has made positive progress. In the first four years, the national unit GDP energy consumption has decreased by 15.61%, but due to high energy consumption in some places. The high-emissions industry has grown too fast. In the first half of this year, the national energy consumption per unit of GDP has not risen by 0.09% year-on-year. The energy consumption per unit of GDP in seven localities has also risen. The situation is very severe and the task is even more arduous.
Low carbon economy dominates green GDP
Under the guidance of the concept of sustainable development, the development of low-carbon economy through various means such as technological innovation, institutional innovation, industrial transformation, and new energy development, and the pursuit of green GDP have become the Chinese government's commitment to the whole society. In order to ensure the realization of the “Eleventh Five-Year†energy conservation and emission reduction targets, the State Council recently requested all regions to further increase their efforts, mainly requiring all localities to resolutely shut down and phase out backward production capacity, and strictly limit the excessive growth of high-energy-consuming and high-emission industries. The aim is to improve the quality and efficiency of economic development.
2. Analysis elements
Advantage
The domestic market has relatively cheap labor resources; the current silicon carbide preparation technology is mature and resource-rich; the silicon carbide industry has begun to take a cluster development trend.
Disadvantage
The scale of the industry is still too small, and the anti-risk ability of policies and funds is poor; the industry order needs to be further regulated, restricting the overall healthy development of the industry; the exchange of industry on key technologies and long-term development is still insufficient.
opportunity
Silicon carbide is widely used, and more and more new markets are waiting to be developed. The new field represented by wire cutting is leading the upgrading of the silicon carbide industry. With the improvement of the international and Chinese economic situation, the silicon carbide industry will also usher. Certain development opportunities need to be noted that the state's control over the environment will be more stringent.
Threat
The development of technologies for new uses of silicon carbide is accelerating, and alternative technologies are appearing in large numbers. The solar photovoltaic industry is still in a rapid growth period, and there are many technologies in fierce competition. Currently, crystalline silicon cells occupy a leading position in market share, but other technologies are also rapidly evolving. If the silicon crystal battery is regarded as the first generation battery technology, there will be two or three generations of battery technologies such as inorganic thin film batteries and thin film batteries. Battery technology will develop toward higher power generation efficiency, which is a trend. An alternative to the current silicon wafer cutting technology is Meyer Berg's diamond wire sawing technology (Diamond Wire). It is understood that there are 15 or so wafer manufacturers in cooperation with Meyer Berg. In the second round of testing, Japan’s AU Optronics announced that it has adopted the technology to achieve mass production. Meyer Berg also predicted that in 2011-13, one-third of the customers in the market will switch to diamond inline saws. In addition, the current silicon wafer cutting companies have already recycled waste mortar, and this measure can reduce the cost of cutting fluid and silicon carbide micro-powder by at least 50%. With the improvement of recycling technology, it is possible to realize the recovery of the recovered liquid, the recovered sand and the new liquid, and the new sand in a ratio of 1:1, which greatly reduces the production cost of the silicon wafer, and enables the silicon wafer cutting manufacturer to recover the waste mortar since 2009. More and more willing to accept, therefore, this will make the silicon carbide industry face severe challenges.
The silicon carbide industry itself is a low-profit industry. Currently, it is affected by many factors. It is expected that the industry's profits will further decline.
3. Internal competition in the silicon carbide industry
The industry's entry threshold is relatively low, and a large number of enterprises and capitals are influx, resulting in a large number of enterprises, small scale, relatively scattered, and low bargaining power. Only the industry can return to the expense of resources, relying on scale and cost. The original development mode, not to pursue the scientific development model relying on scientific and technological progress and management innovation, to disrupt the market with low-quality and low-cost products, in exchange for its short-term survival and development, has seriously affected the normal development trend of the industry and downstream photovoltaic Innovative development of the industry. Affected by national policy regulation, prices of oil and electricity rose, leading to an increase in the price of silicon carbide in the first half of 2010. The price increase of raw materials is also related to natural disasters this year. The weather is not normal, resulting in the reduction of raw materials. The actual industry profit margin is still low.
In summary, the silicon carbide industry faces certain development opportunities, but the focus will be on high-tech, high value-added. The scale of the silicon carbide industry is small and the competition in the industry is disorderly. To this end, it is necessary to strengthen exchanges with the industry, unite and win-win, and improve the overall risk resistance of the industry. China's control over the environment will tend to be strict, and it is a question that all peers must think together. The profit margin of the silicon carbide industry is declining, requiring us to further strengthen technical exchanges and technical cooperation between peers. On the basis of existing industry associations, we will adopt a more close cooperation approach, complement each other's advantages, and take the road of international development of industrialization and clustering.
Third, the silicon carbide industry outlook
technology
To solve the pressures of resources and environment in development, the silicon carbide industry should focus on technology to lead the industry. In the production of silicon carbide, attention is paid to the green and low carbonization of manufacturing. Relying on technological upgrading, increasing production scale, using scale advantages to reduce unit energy consumption; focusing on production processes such as silicon carbide recovery, dust treatment, and water recycling, etc., to reduce resource utilization.
market
According to our forecast, it is estimated that in 2010, the demand for green silicon carbide blocks will exceed 1.2 million tons. Refractory materials and abrasives are traditional low-end applications of silicon carbide, with low added value. Silicon carbide itself is widely used. Strengthening the development of new applications and new application markets and broadening business ideas are the healthy development of the silicon carbide industry in the future. only way.
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