Japan's earthquake triggered the butterfly effect of Chinese machine tools

Japan's earthquake triggered a butterfly effect China seized $80.7 billion market

The report analyzes the market trends, drivers, product overview, competitiveness, innovative products and recent industry dynamics of global machine tools. The report recalls the recent weakness of the machine tool market caused by the global economic downturn. The report believes that the world machine tool industry is very sensitive to changes in economic and financial conditions. The economic ups and downs have affected changes in market demand, and capacity utilization, capacity expansion, and changes in business confidence have all had a major impact on the market.

The world machine tool industry is faced with the most difficult search that has been thrown out by the world economic recession. The butterfly effect of the devastating earthquake in Japan on the global economy on March 11th has had a profound impact on the capital product market. In addition to the weak financial situation, machine tool makers are also dragged down by the processing component market, such as manufacturing, automotive and real estate. Fortunately, the earthquake-stricken areas have deviated from the manufacturing center and have limited impact on the machine tool industry. Due to the wide range of machine tools used in the aerospace, automotive, processing, wind power, mining and petroleum exploration industries, Luo Baihui, executive secretary of the International Association of Molds and Hardware and Plastics Industry Suppliers, believes that although Europe and the Asia-Pacific region are still entrenched The majority of the global machine tool market, but the recovery of the machine tool market will be driven by emerging markets such as China and India. Demand for machine tools in North America is currently showing strong growth, with both production and demand growing rapidly in recent months.

In recent years, the demand for important equipment manufacturing industries such as national defense, aviation, high-speed rail, automobiles and molds has increased significantly, which has led to a substantial increase in the machine tool industry. The average annual compound growth rate of CNC machine tool production in China in the past five years is 37.39%. In the past 10 years, the average annual compound growth rate was 29.94%, and the compound growth in the past 15 years was 22.10%. Driven by the national revitalization of equipment manufacturing operations and international industrial transfer, China's equipment tool purchase investment growth rate will continue to maintain about 20% in the next 5 to 10 years, and the demand of the machine tool industry will continue to maintain rapid growth. Luo Baihui, executive secretary of the International Association of Molds and Hardware and Plastics Industry Suppliers, showed that under the demand, the output of CNC machine tools in China has maintained rapid growth, and the total output value of machine tools has ranked first in the world, becoming a veritable consumer country with economic structure. The deepening of the adjustment, the high growth of listed companies in CNC machine tools and CNC system equipment is expected to continue. In 2010, the consumption of CNC machine tools exceeded US$6 billion, and the number of units exceeded 100,000 units. The table clearly shows that CNC machine tools have become the mainstream of machine tool consumption. China's future CNC machine tool market can seize a huge share.

The key parts of machine tools need to be localized

In 2010, China imported a total of 15.72 billion US dollars of machine tool tools, a record high; metal processing machine tools (gold cutting, forming, mainly medium and high-end machine tools) 9.42 billion yuan, an increase of 59.8%, while domestic metal processing machine tools only increased by 35.1 %. This clarifies that the market occupation rate of domestic machine tools has fallen, and the competitiveness of the medium and high-end machine tools market has not gone up. At the same time, the export of machine tools in 2010 was 7.03 billion US dollars, of which metal processing machine tools only exported 1.85 billion US dollars, and most of them are low-end products, with few high grades and a sharp increase in deficit. Luo Baihui, executive secretary of the International Association of Molds and Hardware and Plastics Industry Suppliers, believes that the important reason for the deficit is that, in addition to the lack of production capacity of advanced machine tools, another important reason is that advanced machine tools use imported systems and components, which are costly and difficult to upgrade. The pulling effect of the previous 4 trillion yuan investment, the disconnection of domestic high-end machine tools and the tax incentives for the state to encourage the import of high-end machine tools are precisely the reasons for the surge in imports of high-end machine tools. Luo Baihui showed that during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, although the numerical control system and the effective components have made great progress, the speed is not enough, and the short board has not been fundamentally solved. At present, the machine tool making skills are developing faster and faster, and the demand is getting higher and higher. The system represents the key parts of the machine tool and will become the focus of the “12th Five-Year Plan” of the machine tool industry.

The gap between the domestic CNC system and the imported CNC system is not only reflected in the system itself, but also the richness and skill content of its supporting software. Such as blade milling, domestic machine tools two or three million yuan (software majority gift) can buy one; and a Swiss Strag machine tool needs 10 million yuan, software more than 10 million yuan, to meet the efficacy needs, There is a big gap in skill content. Another example is the CNC guide grinding machine. Waddrich Coburg and the domestic similar products use the same Siemens 840D system. However, the software is rich and supports many compensation effects. However, our machine tools have not been developed, software and all-round turnkey projects. The proportion is too small.

Wu Bolin, executive vice president of China Machine Tool Industry Association, completed the total industrial output value of China's machine tool industry in 545 billion yuan in 2010, a year-on-year increase of 40.5%, compared with 165.6 billion yuan in the early 11th Five-Year Plan (2006). Compared with, it has increased by 3 times.

Shao Qinzuo, deputy director of the Industry Development Department of China Machine Tool Industry Association, once said that the domestically produced machine tools are still difficult to meet the current market demand in China. The largest machine tool consumer in China accounts for 1/4 of the world's total machine tool consumption, especially There is a huge demand for high-end machine tools.

The 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus is intended to make the demand for medium and high-end machine tools in the automotive, military, energy, railway and rail transit fields “hungry,” but this has always been a shortcoming in the development of China's machine tool industry. Imports of the country. Luo Baihui showed that although the country launched the “Advanced Project of Advanced CNC Machine Tools and Basic Manufacturing Equipment” in 2009, it plans to achieve 70% of the advanced CNC machine tools and basic production equipment required for aerospace, marine, automotive and power generation equipment production by 2020~ 80% is based in China. The key to the "production, study and research" is "use", and ultimately the word "use". But now, the research goals of major special projects are out of touch with our industrialization, especially on the key components of advanced CNC machine tools. In fact, the mid-end products of China's machine tool industry are also surrounded by "foreign production." Although the parameters of domestically produced ordinary machine tools can meet the requirements, due to the lack of reliability and precision, a considerable part of China's mid-range machine tools are also imported from South Korea and other countries.

Foreign countries occupy the commanding heights of high-end skills and product exports. Luo Baihui, executive secretary of the International Association of Moulds and Hardware and Plastics Industry Suppliers, said that Japan and Germany are restricting exports to high-end machine tools. "For example, Demaggio's high-end five-axis linkage machine is limited to export to China, even high-end technicians. There are also restrictions on employment in the field. They worry that the loss of personnel will be accompanied by the outflow of skills," he told.

For the introduction of digesting foreign high-end skills through mergers and acquisitions, Shao Qin believes that the machine tool industry is characterized by multiple varieties, small batches, high skill content, and is not suitable for large-scale mergers. "The machine tool industry is no more than a trouser shirt. Skills accumulation and development require a certain period of time. Without three or five years, it will not suddenly pop up a lot of new products that have been upgraded," Wu Bolin pointed out. Shao Qinzuo also believes: "There is no core skill in autonomous world, and it is difficult to do so in the international arena. Chinese companies must be more energetic."

"There are two important obstacles to solving the short-board problem: a deep-level key skill has not yet been fully controlled; but in the absence of industrialization, the return on investment is low, and even the investment has no return, and the risk is great." Wu Bolin performance.

The "short board" problem of CNC system and power components restricting the development of CNC machine tool industry has attracted the attention of the relevant leaders of the State Council. The relevant departments of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are coordinating the formulation of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and the implementation of the 04 major projects. Invest and increase policy measures to support. Wu believes that as a company, the next step is to focus on how to achieve the organic alliance of mainframes, numerical control systems and power-efficient components under the support of relevant government departments, and accelerate the establishment of close skill alliances in the industry from a strategic height to accelerate Solve the "short board" problem of CNC systems and power components.

To achieve alternative imports, the skill is naturally the right weight, but at the same time, the issue of industrialization is also imminent. It is easy to build a machine tool, and it is difficult to make 100 machine tools. It is about industrialization. According to some materials, in the “Eleventh Five-Year” era, China's machine tool industry has developed many advanced products. However, the machine tool has its particularity, the industry and users are different, and it is a market-oriented operation. The dispersion is large. If you want to change the advanced machine tool from the laboratory mode to the industrialization mode, it will also promote a new round. With the reform of the two-in-one technology as the leader, we will focus on solving the problem that the cost of high-end products of domestic machine tools will not come down and the quality will not go. Similarly, the industrialization of domestic CNC systems and power components is also on the line. Wu Bolin believes that from the current situation, it is not enough to rely on market-oriented operation. Advanced CNC machine tools are important as strategic demand resources. If China's economy and core skills cannot be self-contained, they cannot be fulfilled in accordance with the requirements of the scientific development concept. Sustainable development will surely be subject to people.

From the perspective of market resources, some developing countries are optimistic; the demand for domestic key projects shows a clear growth trend. At present, China's foothold in transforming development methods is development, stability, and harmony. There are still many bright spots in the market, full of opportunities. From the point of view of the national weight and series of policies, the acceleration of major special projects in 2004 continued to drive, and the relevant policies of seven strategic emerging industries were being formulated, all supporting the development of the CNC machine tool industry. It is reported that the major national special investment of 22 billion yuan, most of which will be put in place during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period. From the major special projects, 80% of the “12th Five-Year” domestic machine tools meet the needs of domestic engineering projects, and the varieties are based in China. Among them, the occupation rate of CNC machine tools has increased significantly, reaching more than 70%, and the development method has changed significantly.

At the Fifth Plenary Session of the Seventeenth Central Committee of the Party and the 2010 Central Economic Work Conference, the paper put forward the principle of “taking scientific development as the main theme and accelerating the transformation of economic development methods”, which is a product with traditional products, low quality, high energy consumption and high pollution. Investment must be strictly limited, and a number of backward production capacity should be eliminated. It can be expected that the demand for low-end machine tools will be greatly reduced, and the market demand for economical CNC machine tools will be reduced. At the same time, the current demand structure of China's machine tool market is advancing. The national key support projects such as nuclear power, new energy vehicles, high-speed rail and seven strategic emerging industries are high-end demand, precision, efficiency, degree, reliability, energy conservation and environmental protection. Whether it is possible to catch up with demand is a test. In addition, from the perspective of the world economic situation, Europe, the United States, Japan and other countries will start to recover slowly, and the Chinese market will stand out. All powerful machine tool manufacturers and manufacturers have made China the first strategic goal, and the competition will become more intense and even brutal. These will bring new pressure. With the rise of China and the rise of China's machine tools, the skills blockade of some developed countries to China will also become more and more strict, and our development difficulties will further increase. The National Twelfth Five-Year Plan proposal and the introduction of a series of policies will also bring good development opportunities for China's machine tool industry. How to maintain the healthy, rapid and sustainable development momentum of all industries is the problem that the machine tool industry should further research and solve in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. It is necessary to propose some practical measures and means to circumvent the existing problems and difficulties. To solve it, the machine tool industry will embark on a sustainable and rapid development path.

The Twelve King machine tool industry will achieve a historic leap

Wang Ruixiang, president of the Machinery Industry Association, once said at the industry conference: "In the '12th Five-Year' period, in the new round of industrial structure adjustment and industrial transformation and upgrading, the machine tool industry should optimize the structure, improve product quality, and strengthen Industry supporting capacity and elimination of backward production capacity are the development priorities. With structural adjustment and transformation of development methods as the main line, with scientific and technological innovation as the support, market-oriented, accelerate the promotion of corporate skills reform, strengthen new product development capabilities and brand creation capabilities, and promote tradition. Optimize and upgrade the industry, accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries as the central link; accelerate the promotion of energy-saving emission reduction and green environmental protection production as a breakthrough; strengthen the research and development of core key technologies, break through key areas, and actively advance the informationization degree of machine tool industry." Visible, The development trend of scientific and technological innovation, brand creation, energy conservation and environmental protection is imperative. Every enterprise should seriously consider how to grasp this opportunity at the beginning of the “12th Five-Year Plan” and lay a foundation for the historical leap of the machine tool industry.

Technological innovation is the support

At present, the advancement of science and technology, independent innovation, and the core competitiveness of the industry are the key to the development of the machine tool industry. Wang Ruixiang once pointed out that maintaining the principle of strengthening new product development capabilities and brand creation capabilities and eliminating backward production capacity, advance the basic technology, basic materials, basic components research and development and system integration. Extensive use of new techniques, new processes, new equipment, new materials, the use of electronic information and other high-tech skills and advanced practical skills to reform and upgrade existing industries and products. We will increase our ability to advance our independent innovation capabilities, vigorously create strategic emerging industries, adapt to international competition, expand domestic demand, and save energy and environmental protection. We will vigorously develop marketable varieties, innovate products, accelerate product upgrading, and create independent intellectual property rights. , independent brands, new products and new industries with strong competitiveness.

Adjustment structure, product upgrades, and independent innovation have become everyone's resonance. At present, a large number of domestic machine tool products are still in the low-end, and some core skills in the high-end field are not in the hands, so one direction of development is technological innovation, using new skills. New technologies, new materials, joint high-tech skills to reform and upgrade products, improve product quality and ensure product accuracy, these are urgent issues to be solved. In particular, as the "short board" of the machine tool industry, the numerical control system and the vital components must also take advantage of the various national special opportunities to enhance the technical innovation and product innovation in the high-end production field.

During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, China’s machine tool industry is in urgent need of a number of high-level, large-scale products and brands with independent intellectual property rights, as well as large-scale enterprise groups with resilience in the international market. "Special, new", focusing on a certain field, doing a sophisticated enterprise. Large enterprises need to create product brands with independent intellectual property rights, advance international competitiveness, and develop in a stronger direction. We must also accelerate the transformation of enterprises, and form products with high concentration and complementary advantages as soon as possible to strengthen the industry's ability to resist risks and resist shocks.

In-depth technical exploration and technological reforms for strategic emerging industries involved in the “12th Five-Year Plan” proposal, such as new energy vehicles, high-speed railways, rail transit, shipbuilding, etc., to provide users with special equipment and expand service new field. Under the leadership of policy support and program proposals, we will strengthen the research and development of core key skills, and seize the market at the fastest speed, making it bigger and stronger. At present, there are excellent cases. For example, Hangzhou Machine Tool Group Co., Ltd. has developed a large-scale major equipment for the construction of high-speed railways. MKB7025 CNC track plate special grinding machine has firmly grasped the history of China's high-speed railway construction entering rapid development. Sexual opportunity, for the Beijing-Shanghai line, Jintang line, Shiwu line, Shanghai-Nanjing line, Shanghai-Hangzhou line, Hangzhou-Ningbo line and other high-speed rail target track plate special grinding machine orders, the output value reached 190 million yuan.

Self-owned brand building is the road

For the "development of advanced system operations", many industry experts have proposed to use a variety of roads to create their own brands during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, and to display their important supporting role for economic development, and to indicate that technological innovation is the premise of creating independent brands. .

At present, China, which ranks 4th in global manufacturing operations, is becoming the world's production center and has obvious comparative advantages. However, we cannot neglect our own weakness: the gap between independent brand building and independent research and development. Self-owned brand building is a strategy in which the company is competing in the global competition, and the product, technology and service are becoming more and more homogeneous, and the strategic decision to differentiate the brand is sought. Luo Baihui believes that for decades, China's machine tool industry has learned and absorbed and absorbed the cake in the large machine tool industry. At the same time, it has not completely shaken off the big and not strong dilemma. The problem lies in the brand. Only more companies have learned how to establish their own brand development strategies, and they can enhance the brand competitiveness of all countries, so that China's advanced manufacturing operations are based on the world.

In order to enable enterprises to break through the bottleneck of existing development and solve the problem of “big but not strong”, Shenyang Machine Tool has launched a new trampoline and new CAK in 2010 from the breakthrough of core skills and product structure adjustment. New five types of CNC machine tools, such as Xinlijia, Xinweijia, and new CNC vehicles, will be mass-produced in 2011, eventually forming an annual production capacity of 30,000 units, and upgrading the product grade of Shenyang machine tools as a whole; The OEM method creates a brand-new social production system, which improves the processing capacity of the machine tool production in Shenyang area as a whole, and finally realizes brand management.

As one of the important tasks of industrial structure adjustment, the key to developing advanced manufacturing operations is to enhance the core competitiveness of manufacturing operations, develop strategic emerging industries, strengthen independent innovation capabilities, control core skills and key skills, strengthen the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, and enhance the overall industry. Skill level. In the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, China's machine tool industry has only been able to transform to the high-end and frontier, and to achieve greater development.

New energy development and energy conservation and emission reduction

At present, the energy consumption of mechanical products in the application process is calculated according to 21 categories of mechanical and electrical products, and its electricity consumption accounts for about 70% of the national energy consumption. However, the energy efficiency of energy-consuming equipment is very low. Small and medium-sized motors, fans and pumps are 5 percentage points lower than the advanced level of developed countries, and the system operation efficiency is nearly 20%. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, we will promote changes in energy production and utilization methods, and build a safe, stable, economic, and clean modern energy industry system. Accelerate the development of new energy sources and promote the clean and efficient use of traditional energy sources.

For the machine tool industry, we should pay close attention to the phenomenon of overcapacity and backward production capacity in our production field, and do a good job in industrial structure adjustment and outdated product elimination. Encourage the use of advanced processing techniques and means to encourage the development of circular economy, support and lead the development of energy-saving, water-saving, material-saving, intelligent high value-added products, the self-sufficiency rate of advanced machinery and equipment.

Secondly, while reducing energy consumption, we must supply the basis for the production of new energy. This requires close attention to the new trends in the development of emerging industries, the development of low-carbon, environmentally friendly, high-end products, and strive to seize the commanding heights of international industry competition. Increase the production line of new energy and new materials. Among them, Hanjiang Machine Tool Co., Ltd. successfully developed the CNC multi-wire wafer cutting machine for photovoltaic industry equipment, which is worthy of reference and reference.

The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" brings endless embarrassment to people. In 2010, China's machine tool industry has formed the leading ability of industrial development, resource allocation and market revelation; independent development of basic products and skills innovation; industrial structure adjustment achieved results; energy saving, material saving, environmental protection, safety and development of circular economy The use of skills will also reach the international advanced level, and can participate in international competition to achieve sustainable development. Along with the state's support policies for the machine tool industry and economic globalization, more exciting breakthroughs will be achieved in the broader field of mechanical operations.