Bathroom industry or change to disappear due to demographic dividend

With the shrinking labor force, China’s demographic dividend is gradually fading. This shift presents a significant challenge for labor-intensive industries, particularly those that rely heavily on manual labor. The sanitary ware industry, a crucial segment of the manufacturing sector, is especially vulnerable. Its production process has long depended on human labor, and as the demographic dividend disappears, the industry will face increasing pressure, potentially reshaping its future direction and development patterns. Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics reveals that in 2012, for the first time in many years, the working-age population (aged 15–59) in China saw an absolute decline—dropping by 3.45 million compared to the previous year. According to Cai Min, a member of the National Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China and director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, this marked the turning point of the demographic dividend’s disappearance. Since then, the working-age population has been steadily declining, significantly impacting economic growth. A report from the China Development Research Institute also predicts that the working-age population will decrease by over 29 million between 2010 and 2020. Compared to other industries, the sanitary ware sector does not offer the most attractive employment conditions in terms of salary, benefits, or professional development. As a result, it must compete with other sectors for limited labor resources. The loss of the demographic dividend will likely lead to labor shortages and difficulties in recruitment, intensifying competition. With younger generations seeking more meaningful work and better living conditions, the industry will be forced to improve working environments and increase wages to attract talent. Enhancing human resource management will become a top priority in the short term. Moreover, the level of mechanization and automation in the sanitary ware industry remains low. Most production processes still rely heavily on manual labor, and large-scale machinery has yet to replace human workers. While larger companies may invest in advanced equipment to boost productivity, smaller firms often lack the financial capacity to do so. This disparity could widen the gap between big and small players, accelerating industrial restructuring. As the demographic dividend declines, wages for workers in the sanitary ware industry are expected to rise, leading to higher production costs and squeezed profit margins. Companies with strong brand value may offset these rising costs through product differentiation, but foundry-based manufacturers, constrained by their business models, may struggle to remain competitive. In a climate of low profits, reduced orders, and higher prices, some foundries might either shut down or shift toward branding strategies. Either way, the industry will undergo significant transformation. In addition, factors like rising labor costs, recruitment challenges, and shifting policies are pushing both branded and non-branded sanitary ware companies to consider relocating. Some may move factories to less developed regions within China, while others may establish operations in countries with lower labor costs, such as Thailand or India. These shifts will inevitably reshape the current landscape of the industry. Although the disappearance of the demographic dividend is a gradual process, its impact on the sanitary ware industry should not be underestimated. Companies must avoid complacency and take proactive steps to adapt and upgrade before it's too late. Like the “boiled frog” metaphor, businesses that fail to act risk being left behind. The time to prepare for change is now.

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