Sinochem New Network News ** The market experienced a narrow range of shocks over a month, and it is expected that the end of the year will usher in a small market. Throughout November, the mainstream transaction price in the domestic ** market oscillated in a narrow range around 7,500 yuan (ton price, the same below), and production and sales volume shrank simultaneously, releasing the market's decline due to the increase in production in October and the shrinking demand. . Starting in December, the market moved up the low-end price driven by macroeconomics, external disk pull, base-rate reduction, and bottom-up, and tentatively increased the offer price by 100 to 200 yuan. The market appeared to show signs of rebound. However, due to the restrictions on transportation near the Spring Festival, there is no arbitrage space inside and outside the disk, the downturn in downstream demand and other market is still vulnerable, this round of small Alice tails the market is difficult to continue, does not rule out the room still shock finishing.
- Macro factors boosted and pulled the market bottomed out In early December, the six central banks of the world joined hands to save the market. US and European stock markets soared. On December 2, FOB Korea's spot closing price of international ** was $981, up 4.3% over the week. At the same time, the domestic central bank cut the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage point for the first time in three years, which is favorable to the current market, and the overall macroeconomic factors have contributed to the domestic market atmosphere. In addition, according to statistics, domestic production in October reached 704,000 tons, a record high this year, more than 32.8% of the average output of the previous 10 months, which is one of the reasons for the continuous decline in the market in October. However, in November, affected by many domestic manufacturers overhauling or reducing the load, the comprehensive operating rate fell to 50% to 60%, and the output fell sharply. The transaction volume price began to shrink at the same time, and the contraction volume was clearly bottomed out. Therefore, these comprehensive positive factors are expected to drive a small round of tails.
——The short-term behavior of the rally market is obvious, and the magnitude will be subject to objective factors. It is understood that although the international gambling market has rebounded sharply, its spot transaction price is equal to that of the domestic market. There is still no arbitrage space in the internal and external disks. We cannot drive the export market. This is also the main reason why the domestic import and export ** has basically remained in balance in the past two months, and is still at a low level. The timing of relieving domestic pressure on exports is not yet ripe. At the same time, from the end of the year to the end of the year, due to the fact that ** is a bulk chemical raw material, it has a large amount of funds, and the traffic flow is large. Various factors such as the withdrawal of capital from various companies and tight freight transport will reduce the market turnover rate, and the transaction volume may further shrink. Sex. Therefore, the rally atmosphere cannot continue to pull the market substantially, even if the rebound will be subject to these objective factors, the rebound rate will not be large.
- The negative factors still have not been completely released. There is still a downside risk in the market outlook. According to South Korean Customs data, South Korea exported a total of 99,430 tons in October, a decrease of 22.4% from the previous period. Among them, exports to the United States fell 58.1% month-on-month, down 47% year-on-year; exports to China Taiwan fell 23% year-on-year. At the same time, due to shrinking demand, Japan also has a large number of shipments to be shipped, and exports have also declined. The status quo of supply and demand in the Asian market has not changed, and it is not ruled out that the international market is likely to be repeated again. The Chinese market is also one of their target markets and will inevitably create low prices in the Chinese market. In addition, the main downstream domestic pure benzene consumer companies such as styrene, aniline, nitrochlorobenzene, phenol and other enterprises are currently operating at low rates, an average of 50% to 60%, some companies even fell to about 30%, and due to the market The downturn still has the possibility of further reducing the operating rate, which will reduce the demand for pure benzene again. Therefore, the bearish factors in the market outlook have not yet been completely released and there are many downside risks.
However, according to the current analysis of the current economic environment, the central bank's signal to reduce the bank deposit reserve ratio indicates that the country has begun to implement targeted support policies for various industries to avoid the domino effect of related industries. As a pillar industry, the chemical industry is bound to be affected by favorable policies. Although there is still a certain downside risk in the ** market, as long as the international ** market does not experience large dives, the domestic market will not be deeply adjusted. Because the favorable factors in the short term are still dominant, it is expected that the recent market conditions are expected to form one wave of pre-mainstream trends in the year-end adjustments.
- Macro factors boosted and pulled the market bottomed out In early December, the six central banks of the world joined hands to save the market. US and European stock markets soared. On December 2, FOB Korea's spot closing price of international ** was $981, up 4.3% over the week. At the same time, the domestic central bank cut the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage point for the first time in three years, which is favorable to the current market, and the overall macroeconomic factors have contributed to the domestic market atmosphere. In addition, according to statistics, domestic production in October reached 704,000 tons, a record high this year, more than 32.8% of the average output of the previous 10 months, which is one of the reasons for the continuous decline in the market in October. However, in November, affected by many domestic manufacturers overhauling or reducing the load, the comprehensive operating rate fell to 50% to 60%, and the output fell sharply. The transaction volume price began to shrink at the same time, and the contraction volume was clearly bottomed out. Therefore, these comprehensive positive factors are expected to drive a small round of tails.
——The short-term behavior of the rally market is obvious, and the magnitude will be subject to objective factors. It is understood that although the international gambling market has rebounded sharply, its spot transaction price is equal to that of the domestic market. There is still no arbitrage space in the internal and external disks. We cannot drive the export market. This is also the main reason why the domestic import and export ** has basically remained in balance in the past two months, and is still at a low level. The timing of relieving domestic pressure on exports is not yet ripe. At the same time, from the end of the year to the end of the year, due to the fact that ** is a bulk chemical raw material, it has a large amount of funds, and the traffic flow is large. Various factors such as the withdrawal of capital from various companies and tight freight transport will reduce the market turnover rate, and the transaction volume may further shrink. Sex. Therefore, the rally atmosphere cannot continue to pull the market substantially, even if the rebound will be subject to these objective factors, the rebound rate will not be large.
- The negative factors still have not been completely released. There is still a downside risk in the market outlook. According to South Korean Customs data, South Korea exported a total of 99,430 tons in October, a decrease of 22.4% from the previous period. Among them, exports to the United States fell 58.1% month-on-month, down 47% year-on-year; exports to China Taiwan fell 23% year-on-year. At the same time, due to shrinking demand, Japan also has a large number of shipments to be shipped, and exports have also declined. The status quo of supply and demand in the Asian market has not changed, and it is not ruled out that the international market is likely to be repeated again. The Chinese market is also one of their target markets and will inevitably create low prices in the Chinese market. In addition, the main downstream domestic pure benzene consumer companies such as styrene, aniline, nitrochlorobenzene, phenol and other enterprises are currently operating at low rates, an average of 50% to 60%, some companies even fell to about 30%, and due to the market The downturn still has the possibility of further reducing the operating rate, which will reduce the demand for pure benzene again. Therefore, the bearish factors in the market outlook have not yet been completely released and there are many downside risks.
However, according to the current analysis of the current economic environment, the central bank's signal to reduce the bank deposit reserve ratio indicates that the country has begun to implement targeted support policies for various industries to avoid the domino effect of related industries. As a pillar industry, the chemical industry is bound to be affected by favorable policies. Although there is still a certain downside risk in the ** market, as long as the international ** market does not experience large dives, the domestic market will not be deeply adjusted. Because the favorable factors in the short term are still dominant, it is expected that the recent market conditions are expected to form one wave of pre-mainstream trends in the year-end adjustments.
Linyi Chanta Plywood Co., Ltd. , http://www.lyplywood.com