The transaction is not satisfactory. The steel market spring has not yet arrived.

With the rise of temperatures, outdoor construction has gradually increased, and the traditional season for steel consumption is coming. Under this expectation, the steel price that has been in the falling channel since March has experienced tentative increases in the past two days. However, the trading volume is not satisfactory, indicating that the spring of the steel market has not really come.
According to the data provided by the spot pricing unit for the “Nishimoto Shinkansen” national price monitoring unit, since March, domestic steel prices have declined from 4,790 yuan/ton to 4,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of nearly 4%. During this period, due to the Japanese earthquake, some Japanese steel mills stopped production and domestic steel prices once rebounded. However, the facts prove that the stimulating effect of this unexpected factor is very short-lived. It only lasted for three days before it turned back down.

“The most fundamental thing is to look at terminal demand. Although current demand is gradually picking up, there is still a certain gap between the same period in history,” said Sheng Zhicheng, deputy secretary-general of the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation's steel logistics professional committee. CICC believes that this is a delay with the return time of many migrant workers this year, which has led to the late start of the construction site.

However, as temperatures rise, real demand will start sooner or later. On the 30th, the steel price offered by “Nishijin Shinkansen” was 4,630 yuan/ton, which was a rebound of 10 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week. In terms of terminal procurement, transactions of low-level resources are more active, and some merchants offer a certain amount of price increases. The Nishimoto Shinkansen has described the current steel prices as "excitingly eager to try and look around." After all, the buying atmosphere of the downstream industries has not really taken shape.

Looking ahead to the April market trend, the “Nishimoto Shinkansen” pointed out that although the recent domestic construction steel inventories continued to lighten up by nearly 6%, the average daily average steel production in the country remained at a high level of over 1.9 million tons since March. The limited space for falling back in April increased the difficulty of “de-stocking”. Under this condition, although steel prices will rebound in stages as demand gradually releases, the real reversal will take time.

Compared with steel prices, the price trend of iron ore is even less optimistic. As China's steel prices have been adjusted since mid-February this year and the Japanese earthquake has affected the demand for iron ore, the domestic spot ore price has dropped from the high point of nearly 200 US dollars/ton after the holiday to the current level of 175 US dollars/ton, showing a significant drop. The decline in steel prices over the same period.

The newly released "Xinhua-China Iron Ore Price Index" shows that as of the 28th, domestic iron ore stocks in ports were 92.48 million tons, which is enough to support domestic steel mills' raw material demand in the past two months. In addition, since last year, the sharp increase in production of domestic iron ore has also eased the tight supply of iron ore to some extent. "It is expected that iron ore prices will hardly return to the $180/ton range this year," said Hu Kai, a senior iron ore analyst at Union Metals.

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