China Investment Advisory Network reported that the concept of photovoltaic polysilicon in this summer Davos again set off an upsurge. However, many people in the industry believe that the recent increase in the price of polysilicon, which is the main raw material for solar photovoltaic panels, has led to excessive pressure on photovoltaic costs, and the previously low bidding price of the second batch of photovoltaic power plant concessions issued by the National Energy Administration has given rise to Many private enterprises cannot afford it. Some private enterprises in Davos directly call for bidding power prices are too low.
In fact, due to the limited domestic demand, private enterprises that rely on the start of national policies have no choice but to go abroad for development in 2004. However, they create myths of riches. Nowadays, China's photovoltaic equipment manufacturing industry has accounted for 40% of the global market share, but domestic consumption capacity is only 5%. The international market cannot expand without limits, and private enterprises urgently need to return to the domestic market. However, as the domestic PV market has just started and industrial policies have become clear, how to break the high cost, break the funding for photovoltaic bidding, and other intangible barriers have become the problems to be solved today.
Chartered bidding
The country wants to break the PV price puzzle
Recently, the bidding results for the second batch of photovoltaic power plant concessions of the National Energy Administration with a total installed capacity of 280 megawatts fell to a certain level. The highest winning bid price for the 13 tenders was 0.9907 yuan/kWh, far below the first year ago. Batch tender.
“To a certain extent, candidates for this examination are not the protagonists of the “Guo Zi Tou†holding the answer sheet, but are the equipment manufacturing companies under the banner of “Minâ€, because the most important determinant of photovoltaic electricity price is the price of PV modules. Mr. Meng Xianyu, Vice Chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society and Secretary General of the China Solar Energy Society said.
Solar energy is called the most abundant energy on the earth. According to statistics, the total amount of energy needed by humans is about 13 billion kilowatts. The total amount of wind energy and tidal energy on the earth is less than 10 billion kilowatts, and geothermal energy is about 12 billion kilowatts. The total amount of solar energy is about 120 trillion kilowatts.
Solar photovoltaic power generation system is a new type of power generation system that uses the photovoltaic effect of semiconductor materials of solar cells to directly convert solar radiation energy into electrical energy. It has two modes: independent operation and grid-connected operation. Independent operation is mainly used in rural electricity and road lighting. The “millions of roofs†program in Europe is to encourage ordinary residents to install solar panels directly on the roof to generate electricity, which also belongs to the scope of independent operation. Grid-connected operation refers to the integration of the electricity generated by large-scale photovoltaic power plants into the power grid, which is then regulated by the power grid and then transmitted to the power users in the network through the power grid. This is a project that has been promoted in China and is the content of this tender.
According to the quotation list for the second round of bidding for photovoltaic concession, the lowest prices of all projects have fallen below RMB 1/kWh, and most bidders’ quotation is RMB 0.6-0.8/kWh. The China National Electric Power Investment Group is even more Two times the lowest price of 0.6101 yuan / kWh of the audience, this price approaching the current inland wind power on-grid tariff, lower than last year's price of 1.09 yuan / kWh bid.
In response, most private enterprises stated that “the winning bid price was low,†and Shi Zhengrong, chairman and president of Wuxi Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd., used the words “very disappointed†when he attended the Summer Davos Forum to express the results of this tender. dissatisfied. However, such results seem to have been expected by the National Energy Administration.
"This price is consciously voluntary, and should not be subject to excessive criticism." Meng Xianyu disclosed to this reporter that as long ago as the bidding, the relevant person in charge of the National Energy Administration had repeatedly stated at various meetings that the price of photovoltaic was too high. Even if you fall to 1 yuan/kWh, it is still too expensive. Meng Xianyi said that another reason is that this quotation is not a spot, but about two years after the **, in 2009 a large number of domestic photovoltaic companies have published "Luoyang **", said in 2012 to reduce the price of photoelectric to 1 yuan Below, from this point of view, prices below 1 yuan are in line with expectations.
The low price below 1 yuan caused several happy families. Although the domestic photovoltaic module manufacturing industry started earlier, the photovoltaic power generation industry has only experienced one year from scratch. During the period, although the National Development and Reform Commission has repeatedly introduced the on-grid tariff adjustment standards, what is the reasonable domestic on-grid tariff is considered to be It is an unknown mystery.
Up to now, the National Energy Administration has announced the benchmark on-grid tariff for biomass power generation. From traditional energy sources to new energy sources, only the price of photovoltaic power generation has yet to form a benchmark.
Meng Xianji believes that the current key point for the domestic wind power and photovoltaic power market to open significantly is stuck on the on-grid tariff. On the one hand, based on the current on-grid tariff, the current price compensation mechanism cannot withstand the larger-scale photovoltaic construction. On the other hand, the rationality of cost and profit is also an important prerequisite for the market's normative development.
The so-called special concessions bidding is an important means for the country to conduct price mapping. In 2009, the National Energy Administration conducted a concession tender for the 20MW photovoltaic power generation project in Dunhuang, Gansu Province. In this tender, although the "rational price" of 1.09 yuan of China General Nuclear was a winner, the price of 0.69 yuan, which was reported as a "violation of market rules" and was reported by SDIC Power and the Yingli Green Energy Consortium, was specially obtained. Another item. The country’s intention to collect all prices from high to low reflects the intention of prices.
At the beginning of this month, before the tender result was announced, Shi Lishan, deputy director of the New Energy Division of the National Energy Administration, said in an open interview with the media that the bidding was subject to change. Shi Lishan said, “The state has passed the tender for the second batch of photovoltaic power plant concession projects and is also trying to explore it again. Look at the result of this tender. If the price of electricity can be lowered, it is reasonable and the company can achieve a certain profit. Follow-up similar large Only large-scale bidding can start, and the development of the domestic photovoltaic industry can be accelerated.â€
"At present, everyone has similar technology, and the main factor in determining who wins is price." Shi Lishan said that the Chinese solar photovoltaic market can not be opened, the key is to see if the photovoltaic power price can be reduced.
Incubation of private capital
The state boosts the photovoltaic industry
Whether it is the price of the enigma or the photovoltaic industry, the government has always played the role of general director behind the scenes. The protagonist is a private enterprise.
In August 2010, Yingli Group, which covers an area of ​​1600 mu in the Baoding Development Zone, resembles an alarm clock full of clockwork. 11,000 employees are busy delivering the 4 Chinese characters of "China Yingli" in the World Cup. Huge orders.
“Yingli is the national team in the photovoltaic industry.†After receiving the exclusive interview from this reporter, Ma Xuelu, the chief strategy officer of Yingli Group after retiring from the management committee, recalled that national and local governments had given Ying Li’s support.
In 1997, as the director of the Administrative Committee of Baoding Development Zone, Ma Xuelu could not find a direction for the development of new energy in the development zone. After several exchanges with Ying Li’s chairman Miao Liansheng, the two sides jointly spotted the solar photovoltaic industry. In 1998, the Baoding High-tech Zone Development Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of the Management Committee, officially entered into a joint venture with Yingli Company in the state-owned capacity. Yingli New Energy Co., Ltd. was established. The company adopts a state-controlled and private-owned mechanism.
Yingli Company, which obtained state ownership, immediately received support from the state. “In 2000, the State Planning Commission formally approved Yingli’s 3 MW solar photovoltaic project as a major high-tech industrial demonstration project, and provided 20 million yuan in financial support. The 20 million yuan is for the current annual output value of 15 billion yuan and more than 10,000 employees. Yingli is not a major event, but it was an indispensable start-up fund at that time.†Ma Xuelu said that after obtaining approval and funding, Yingli’s photovoltaic project was officially started construction and put into production in 2001 with more than 100 employees.
By 2004, Yingli New Energy Co., Ltd. launched the second phase of the expansion project, and its production capacity has rapidly expanded from 3MW to 100MW. Just as the company began on the right track and began rapid development on the eve of the state-owned assets as a high-tech Zone Development Co., Ltd. decisively withdraw. Ma Xuelu said that at that time, the Baoding Municipal Government and the Development Zone Management Committee unanimously believed that the business incubating work had been completed and that the withdrawal of state-owned assets and management was more conducive to the healthy development of the company.
After the withdrawal of state-owned assets, Yingli's development not only did not slow down, but achieved leapfrog development by obtaining overseas assets. By 2006, production capacity had increased by 4 times and it was successfully listed on the main board of the New York Stock Exchange the following year.
It is not the Yingli family that has received government "paid" treatment in the photovoltaic industry. Another domestic private photovoltaic giant Wuxi Suntech also took this development route, which is later called the "Wuxi model." In 2000, Austrian Chinese Dr. Shi Zhengrong returned home to develop the solar photovoltaic industry. With a 200-page feasibility report, he traveled to Shanghai, Dalian, and Hangzhou to find investors willing to invest US$8 million. The Wuxi municipal government became Shirley's Bole. Decisively invested, and appointed Shi Zhengrong as general manager, giving 25% of the shares. Under the urging of the government, 8 local companies such as Little Swan Group and Wuxi Hi-Tech Venture Capital Co., Ltd. became the first shareholders. The final project was a success. The Wuxi municipal government also withdrew from state-owned shares in due course.
Exorbitant myths
Private enterprises catch the international demand for the first shuttle
If Yingli and Suntech's two companies embarked on the road to the photovoltaic industry because of the sensible prejudgment of entrepreneurs and local governments, then one year later, the domestic photovoltaic industry officially ushered in a national-level policy promotion. In 2001, China's photovoltaic industry had a production capacity of less than 1 MW, and the National Development and Reform Commission’s predecessor, the State Planning Commission, launched the “Bright Projectâ€. Meng Xianzhi recalled that at that time, the government allocated a few billion yuan of funds for the construction of distributed power generation in the mountains.
“In fact, the long-term significance of this project lies not only in solving the electricity problem in remote mountainous areas in China, but also in the starting stage of the Chinese photovoltaic industry.†Meng Xianyi said that by 2003, China’s photovoltaic capacity had reached 13 trillion. watt.
Meng Xianlu introduced that private capital has begun to take shape at the beginning of this century, and the domestic traditional industries have become saturated, and private capital lacks a way out. Under the premise that the country releases positive signals, the new energy industry has become a new excitement for private capital investment. For state-owned enterprises, the domestic market is still open to a great extent. Even the 13 megawatt production capacity in 2003 is still not attractive. Therefore, private capital has become the protagonist of the industrial layout at the beginning and gradually established itself. As the protagonist of China's photovoltaic industry. The early layout of this group of enterprises also laid the foundation for the international market.
By the end of 2003, with the gradual implementation of power transmission to township projects, domestic demand began to weaken, and a large number of photovoltaic equipment manufacturing companies are rapidly expanding production capacity. The high cost made the country unable to support the photovoltaic power generation industry through national policies like Europe did. The first batch of private enterprises such as Yingli and Suntech encountered a short-term development bottleneck.
Waiting is not long. In 2004, Germany introduced a mandatory on-grid tariff policy. Then Europe and the United States successively launched a solar roof plan and a photovoltaic grid-connected policy. Demand growth exceeded 200%, bringing huge business opportunities to these Chinese companies. In the past year, the marketing of Wuxi Suntech broke out. Also on December 15th of that year, Suntech successfully landed on the New York Stock Exchange. The financing scale reached 400 million U.S. dollars on the same day, and the company’s market value also reached 3 billion U.S. dollars, not only setting a precedent for private enterprises to land on the New York Stock Exchange, but also setting a new record. Mainland private enterprise financing myth.
This myth of wealth has made domestic private capital taste the sweetness. From 2004 to 2006, China's PV module industry has seen spurt development and began to take a larger share on the international stage. According to Jiang Qian, chief investigator of China Energy Advisors New Energy Industry Research Institute, the success of China's private PV module industry is not only due to the low cost of land and labor in China, but also to the fact that no country can compare with Chinese companies when there is a sharp increase in foreign demand. Organize large-scale manpower and material resources faster to expand production capacity. “At that time, the photovoltaic component industry was a huge profit industry. It was impossible to imagine the cost of recovering costs after investing for three years,†said Meng Xianyi.
Adjustment policy
Rethinking the domestic market requires multiple barriers
As of 2009, China's photovoltaic equipment manufacturing industry accounted for 40% of the global market, while domestic consumption capacity was only 5% of these products. "It is not so much a national policy lag, it is better to say that this industry has developed too fast," said Meng Xianyi.
Before 2006, high-priced photovoltaics of nearly 5 US dollars per watt were only games for developed countries. However, the development speed of the photovoltaic industry far exceeded the national expectations. Through the test of the first batch of photovoltaic power plant concession tenders in 2009, the above plans were adjusted in time. . Meng Xianjun disclosed that the State Council has adopted the "Strategic Emerging Industries Plan" in principle. The new energy industry is planned to be listed as one of the seven major industries. For the development of solar photovoltaics, the plan also aims to increase the target three years ago by a factor of 10, and proposes that by 2020, the total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China will reach 20,000 megawatts.
Meng Xianjun believes that since the beginning of this year, China's photovoltaic industry policy is becoming more complete and clear. The National Energy Work Conference held in January this year also gave PV a “reputation†style statement: scientific planning, appropriate development, and launch of the domestic solar power market.
The development goals have been made clear. The next step is to develop the route. The rules for the second batch of bidding for PV are as follows: The bidding company must pay a security deposit of 5 million yuan for each subject, the mortgage duration is 14 months, and the company must have 10% of the project capital, and guarantee 30% of the company's plan. private capital. This article is called the "glass door" entered by private enterprises.
"Based on the still high PV cost at this stage, this project must be led by the state for a long period of time, while the central government as a direct executor of the policy is more easily government-led. Realistically speaking, now as a downstream photovoltaic The power generation industry is not an industry suitable for private capital,†said Meng Xianjun. From the current successful bid price, the company’s investment recovery period is as long as 25 years. From a national perspective, it is to maintain industry stability. Changed from a group of leading enterprises such as Yingli and Suntech.