Imported polysilicon processing trade limits the impact of PV downstream enterprises

On August 14, the Ministry of Commerce issued a news of suspending the import of solar-grade polysilicon processing trade from the United States and South Korea. This means that domestic polysilicon “double-reverse” US and South Korea will increase their efforts to increase the bargaining power for China's negotiations in the photovoltaic field, and also bring opportunities for the overall upgrade of China's PV industry.

Trade processing weakens the "double opposition"

The Ministry of Commerce website announced that, in view of the import of solar-grade polysilicon from the United States and South Korea on January 20, 2014 and the trade remedy measures for importing solar-grade polysilicon from the EU on May 1, 2014, China’s polysilicon import utilization processing trade The surge occurred. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs decided to suspend the application for processing trade import business for solar-grade polysilicon (customs commodity number 28204190112, 2804619013, 28004909092, 2804061093) from September 1, 2014.

This is indeed the case. After the domestic “poly-anti-poly” polysilicon, the foreign dumping of polysilicon momentum to the domestic market has not been fundamentally curbed. On the contrary, there has been a significant increase in the import of polysilicon under the category of processing trade. The domestic “poly-anti-poly” of polysilicon is minimal.

The reporter checked the customs data and learned that in the first half of this year, China imported 45,900 tons of polysilicon, mainly from Germany, the United States and South Korea. The amount of polysilicon entering the Chinese market in the form of processing trade was 34,000 tons, accounting for more than 74% of the total imported polysilicon. Among them, imports from Germany were 14,900, South Korea imported 13,700 tons, and the United States imported about 10,000 tons. Taking polysilicon imported from the United States as an example, more than 80% of them entered China in the form of trade processing, evading the punitive tax rate on polysilicon imports imposed by China.

CITIC Securities Investment Analyst Sheng Hua also pointed out in the research report that as of June 2014, the domestically imported polysilicon volume of processed materials increased by 38% from the previous month and increased by 99% year-on-year. Polysilicon imported from the United States accounted for 22% and 28% of total imports in the first half of 2014 and 2013, respectively.

Limited impact on PV downstream companies

The Ministry of Commerce issued a policy to suspend the application for solar-grade polysilicon imports from September 1, but also provided a buffer period for long-term orders signed before this date. According to the announcement, as of December 31, 2014, all import applications have been officially suspended, and August-December has become the buffer period for the long-term execution of downstream enterprises. In this regard, industry analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic polysilicon enterprises will benefit, and the downstream enterprises will have a relatively large response. However, in the long run, the Ministry of Commerce's move is conducive to accelerating domestic ownership of raw materials in the photovoltaic field, which is of great significance to the development of the domestic photovoltaic industry.

Wang Runchuan, a researcher at the China-Australia International Trust Industry Finance Institute, said in an interview with China Energy News: "The impact on downstream enterprises will not be as obvious as the industry forecasts, but it will have a huge impact on the US polysilicon industry." He said that the first half of this year Imported 10,000 tons from the United States, it is estimated that about 20,000 tons for the whole year. From the data in 2013, the domestic consumption of polysilicon is 15-16 million tons, of which 80,000 tons are imported, 84,000 tons are supplied domestically, and the gap of 1-2 million tons in the United States can be fully compensated by South Korea, Germany and domestic polysilicon manufacturers. ”

According to the reporter's understanding, South Korea's OCI and Germany's WACKER's total polysilicon production this year is about 100,000 tons, domestic polysilicon enterprises can reach 14-15 million tons, can meet at least 250,000 tons of domestic polysilicon supply demand, and domestic use in 2013 The amount of silicon is only 15-16 million tons.

At the same time, due to the domestic double-counter polysilicon has been going on for two years, domestic downstream PV companies have long expected the Ministry of Commerce to do so, and there have been experience in dealing with this. From the past two years, domestic PV companies have gradually reduced long-term contracts with US companies. The quantity can also be seen. Therefore, the Ministry of Commerce's move has limited impact on domestic downstream PV companies.

Accelerate China's ownership of raw materials

According to the reporter's observation, because China's anti-dumping tariffs against the US are between 53% and 57%, and the low tax rate in South Korea means that the domestic imports of US polysilicon will be temporarily closed, but this has won a short period for Chinese polysilicon enterprises. Breathing opportunities.

“I think it is not easy for the government to find a balance point in the entire industrial chain, indicating that the country is really doing something to develop domestic PV. In the short term, PV downstream enterprises will be affected, but in the long run, domestic PV The upstream and downstream will share the favorable cost of domestic PV raw materials.” Yao Gongda, general manager of Daxin Energy, said in an interview with China Energy News that “the market reaction is very rational from the perspective of the stocks on the day of the policy. ”

Yao Gongda said that due to the stimulation of this policy, Daquan's stock once rose sharply, but then fell back. The domestic PV downstream companies' stocks performed steadily and were not affected drastically. Some component companies' stocks also rose.

In an interview with China Energy News, Lv Jinbiao, vice president of GCL-Poly, also said that the Ministry of Commerce has used the trade rules to advocate legitimate rights for Chinese companies in order to safeguard the interests of the domestic PV industry. For Chinese companies, we must seize the opportunity to reduce costs and tap the potential of the industry. At the same time, domestic PV companies should stabilize production and supply, and downstream enterprises will seize the market opportunities in the second half of this year to make China's PV industry. Big and strong, as soon as possible to promote photovoltaic parity online. ”

"The Ministry of Commerce's move is consistent with China's true long-term strategic direction in the field of photovoltaics. It is not only conducive to the early realization of raw material autonomy in China, but also to China's initiative in global PV development." Lu Jinbiao said.

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