Abstract At the recruitment point of Shenzhen Foxconn Qinghu Plant, many workers who queued for employment ate “closed doors†and posted notices on the recruitment door: “Suspend recruitment, the specific recruitment time will be notified separatelyâ€. in...
At the recruitment point of Shenzhen Foxconn Qinghu Plant, many workers who queued for employment ate “closed doors†and posted notices on the recruitment door: “Pause recruitment, the specific recruitment time will be notified separatelyâ€. In the Huangfengling Industrial Zone, Shiyan, Baoan District, Shenzhen, Emmett Electric (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. is trying to improve the automation level by using robots. “After two years of production line transformation, we have effectively reduced the number of workers. In some production lines, the number of workers has dropped by more than half, and the productivity of robots has increased by more than 20% compared with labor, and the yield of products has also increased significantly.†Emmett Human Resources Lu Wei, manager of the resources department, said.
The phenomenon of the lack of work of the traditional laborers has been alleviated by the robots... The phenomenon of “labor shortage†that appeared around 2003 has quietly ushered in a turning point after ten years. Under the background of declining economic growth, large-scale “labor shortage†will gradually disappear, and the structural “labor shortage†will be highlighted. Experts and business owners interviewed by China Securities Journal believe that in the context of future new urbanization construction, economic restructuring and demographic restructuring, the seasonal and structural shortage of “labor shortage†is expected to exist for a long time, but In terms of scale or weakening, the structure will be intensified, and the asymmetric pattern of enterprise demand and laborer skills supply may become increasingly prominent. The rise in labor costs is forcing enterprises to upgrade their technology, and robots may become a new landscape. . In addition, before the industrial transformation and upgrading, the government and enterprises need to improve the employment system, improve the employment environment, and improve the efficiency of human resource development to ensure that the rational flow of labor is in line with the trend of economic growth.
Structural lack of work will be highlighted
Robot OEM or acceleration
The suspension of recruitment in some of the Foxconn Group's factories with millions of jobs has caused a lot of waves in the job market. In mid-February, at the recruitment point of Shenzhen Foxconn Qinghu Plant, China Securities Journal reporter saw that the recruitment door posted a notice of “suspension of recruitment, specific recruitment time will be notified separatelyâ€.
Foxconn mainland spokesman Liu Kun explained that the direct reason for Foxconn's suspension of recruitment this year was that the factory returned to the post rate after the festival reached 97.5%, and the number of employees could meet the current production plan. “In the past two years, the company has greatly increased the wage level of workers. In Shenzhen, for example, the monthly basic salary of Foxconn first-line workers rose from 900 yuan in 2010 to 2,200 yuan in 2012, and increased by more than 100% in two years. The increase is a comparison. High. Therefore, in the recruitment aspect, I will not worry about the problem of 'labor shortage'. Once the large-scale recruitment is started, the employment gap will be filled soon."
In the talent market in Shenzhen Longhua area, many electronic manufacturing companies have launched the signboards of the rushing general workers. The on-site staff actively persuaded the young people who came to apply for jobs to register and apply for higher salary and benefits. "According to the market monitoring situation we have, the average worker's work cycle in a company is two to three months long and one week short. Some companies with insufficient competitiveness have a very high turnover rate, losing about 30% or more per month. Xu Qin, general manager of Shenzhen Sanhe Human Resources Co., Ltd. said that from the perspective of the total supply of manpower market, there is no problem of “labor shortageâ€, and recruitment difficulties often occur in some small-scale and poor labor environments. In the enterprise. In fact, in the past two years, in response to ordinary migrant workers who are out of work, enterprises have responded by raising salaries and improving employment benefits. The problem of large-scale “labor shortage†has not deteriorated, but has eased.
Similarly in the employment market in Guangzhou, Dongguan and other regions, the employment situation of enterprises has also appeared “polarizationâ€: enterprises with higher wages and welfare levels have not had the problem of “labor shortageâ€, while some have replaced the basic wage with the minimum wage. Due to the poor working environment and lack of social security, the return rate of employees after the holiday is often less than 50%. Some enterprises have to hire a large number of temporary workers to start the work smoothly.
However, the structural lack of work may be further highlighted. In the process of upgrading and transformation of manufacturing industry, enterprises have increased demand for high-tech employment, and the current employment market is difficult to meet. The joint investigation report from Shenzhen Talent Exchange Service Association and a number of human resources intermediaries shows that the transformation and upgrading of enterprises has accelerated, the demand for skilled labor has increased, and the contradiction between the supply of existing technicians has begun to appear. 10.97% of enterprises believe that labor skills The quality level can not effectively meet the employment needs of enterprises. The Shenzhen Municipal People's and Social Security Bureau's quarterly survey of supply and demand in the labor market also shows that technicians are “hard to findâ€. This corresponds to 25.38% of respondents who report that “no technology†is the biggest confusion in finding a job.
In the eyes of some business operators, the crux of the labor shortage is that intensive industries that rely on cheap labor to create benefits are becoming less and less competitive in this “human struggleâ€. Zhang Jun, head of human resources at a certain LED enterprise in Shenzhen, said that the “work dilemma†in the labor market actually reflects the current trend of industrial transformation and upgrading. "Now job seekers will vote with their feet." The high salary expectation of job seekers will force enterprises to do cost accounting, from low-end OEM manufacturing to manufacturing enterprises with core technology capabilities, and increase labor added value. Will not affect business operations."
Another new phenomenon is the rise of robots. Difficulties in recruiting workers and rising labor costs have forced many manufacturers to improve their production automation. Lv Wei said that a few years ago, wages accounted for only about 6% of Emmett's total production costs, and now it has risen to 15%. Emmett's solution is to automate the production line, and only young women can be competent in assembly line work, and may be replaced by robots in the future. The Foxconn Group also announced a high-profile plan for a million robots.
“If you calculate the minimum monthly salary of 3,500 yuan per person, the monthly salary of three workers is 10,500 yuan. The application operation of one robot can replace the work of three workers, and the investment cost and maintenance cost can be saved. The salary of 12,600 yuan can also increase the production efficiency to more than 20%." Chen Sheng, who is responsible for sales of industrial robot products in Shenzhen, believes that robots can save a lot of manpower expenses for enterprises. "However, in some sophisticated and complicated In the technical position, the demand for skilled workers is still relatively large, and it is difficult for such types of work to rely on machine workers to replace them.
“Labor shortage†cycle or lengthening
Local normalization
In fact, under the circumstance that the labor market resources have become more limited, the problem of “labor shortage†has gradually changed from the phenomenon of periodic shortage of work in the early years to the problem of structural and long-term employment. The decade-long evolution of the “labor shortage†is intertwined with a series of macro-propositions such as the standardization of the employment system of Chinese enterprises, the rise of new generation of migrant workers, the upgrading of industrial enterprises, and the reform of the education system. It also reflects the evolution of China’s economic structure and industrial changes in the past decade.
According to the 2012 Social Blue Book of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, as early as 2003, the “labor shortage†has emerged. In 2004, about 10% of the processing and manufacturing areas in the Pearl River Delta, Southeastern Guizhou, and Southeastern Zhejiang were out of work. From 2003 to 2007, the problem of “labor shortage†of enterprises in coastal areas has become more and more fierce. Different from the initial economic growth, the deterioration of economic environment, the increase of labor costs, and the internal migration of industries have made a group of labor-intensive gatherings along the coast. Enterprises are under unprecedented operational pressure, and companies that have traveled to the lowest wage line frequently launch recruitment wars but cannot reverse the recruitment problem.
“The emergence of 'labor shortage' is often related to the macroeconomic environment. The labor shortage in 2003 was actually related to the overheated economy at that time. The orders of enterprises increased and the demand for labor increased, but the local labor supply did not keep up.†Shenyin Wanguo Li Huiyong, a macroeconomic analyst, believes that with the change in the age structure of employment and the reduction in labor supply, the absolute proportion of the labor force in the total population is declining, leading to a shortage of employment in some areas. Since 2008, due to factors such as the financial crisis, the economy has slowed down, and the problem of “labor shortage†has naturally made it difficult to find employment.
Many human resources experts believe that the initial problem of “labor shortage†is often related to the observation time, showing periodic and staged employment shortages, and can not prove the “real deficiency†of labor supply. Chen Yangsheng, secretary-general of the Shenzhen Talent Exchange Service Association, believes that the “labor shortage†itself has a phased nature. Under the “returning tide†culture in China, there will be periodic peaks in the employment gap after the holiday. “When we followed the investigation of the Municipal Bureau of Manpower, there were very few companies that had stopped working because of the difficulty in recruiting workers. The general business has 10% to 20% of the general work flow is normal.â€
The concentrated outbreak of 'employment shortage' is essentially the inevitable result of the majority of enterprises relying on cheap labor in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang without raising the wage level and not transferring the industry.†Wang Xiaoguang, researcher of the Decision-making Department of the National School of Administration It is believed that enterprises consider the cost of labor, but they do not take into account the cost of living in the city. Compared with the central and western regions, the attractiveness of the eastern coastal enterprises to labor naturally declines, and the problem of “labor shortage†will continue for a long time.
China's population and family planning yearbook statistics show that in recent years, the labor exporting province has experienced a significant population return phenomenon. The employment population of six traditional labor export provinces in Henan, Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan and Anhui has increased significantly, meaning In these provinces, the outflow population is choosing to return or the more labor force is moving from the east to the central and western regions.
"The large-scale 'labor shortage' will slowly disappear, and the local 'labor shortage' will exist for a long time. For example, in the manufacture of precision instruments, the need for highly skilled technicians will be reflected in the shortage of high-skilled manpower." Zhang Chewei, deputy director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, believes that from the perspective of skill demand, the employment market is always in a state of shortage of employment. The future "labor shortage" is reflected in the shortage of skilled workers. This is a relatively large trend. "The transition from the 'labor shortage' of general labor to the 'labor shortage' of skilled workers is also the time when domestic manufacturers move from low-end manufacturing to high-end manufacturing. The two are synchronized."
Chen Jianhui, director of the Human Resources Market Research Office of the China Academy of Personnel, said that the shortage of skilled workers is mainly due to the fact that the skills training of laborers in the current talent market does not match the industrial development. The talent gap of high-end technical jobs reflects the current The cultivation of talents in universities and other areas is out of touch with social needs. “The important reason is that the information in the job market is not comprehensive, including the information asymmetry between the regions, making the structural 'labor shortage' a long-term dilemma. The government needs to solve it through public policy means such as training, education and market services. these questions."
In Li Huiyong's view, the shortcomings of the traditional education system lead to the asymmetry of the structure of labor supply and demand. "For example, the traditional emphasis on academic education, now needs to pay attention to skills education, which also makes the expansion of colleges and universities, the difficulty of college graduate employment and the needs of the society, skilled workers, skilled workers' labor needs to form a contrast. From the concept of employment to the transformation of economic structure, It takes a long time, and before these problems are solved, the cycle of 'labor shortage' will be lengthened."
Market leverage is more waiting
Population policy may need to be adjusted
The decline in the proportion of the working-age labor force also indicates the long-term nature of the problem of “labor shortageâ€. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of 2012, China’s population aged 15-59 was 937.27 million, accounting for 69.2% of the total population. The number of people decreased by 3.45 million from the end of the previous year, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the end of the previous year.
Demographic expert Cai Wei once wrote that 2013 is the year in which the demographic dividend disappeared. Due to the depletion of the demographic dividend, the development of the future job market will inevitably undergo dramatic changes. The McKinsey Global Institute has made judgments on the employment situation in developed countries. With the deepening of technology and industry, the phenomenon of machine substitution, technical mismatch, high permanent unemployment, increased virtual positions, and increased pool of unemployed talents will become employment. The normal state of the market.
From the perspective of the Chinese market, which is losing its manpower advantage, signs of youth unemployment, industrial robots, and rising employment rates of older workers are also emerging. "Now the standard of employment is declining. As long as it is strong and strong, it doesn't matter if you are older." Li Sheng, the boss of the foundry company in Dongguan, told the China Securities Journal that many small local enterprises were subject to cost pressure and began to relax their recruitment. The age limit, the original academic requirements are also gradually reduced.
Industry experts believe that institutional reforms such as accelerating industrial transformation and upgrading, changing employment concepts, and improving the service industry to absorb employment space have become the root of the problem. Zhang Chewei said that in the future, the space for further manufacturing employment in the manufacturing sector will become smaller and smaller. The future development space lies in upgrading and upgrading the technological content. At present, the wage level of the life service industry is still relatively low, and there is much room for improvement in the future. "In the future, changes in the relationship between labor supply and demand will promote the rise of urban wages, and force companies to upgrade their structures through innovative and innovative technologies, from inefficient industries to high-value sectors," he said.
Li Huiyong suggested that the development trend of the employment market in developed countries also reminds the future of China's labor market. On the one hand, population policy needs to focus on the future, such as changing from the one-child policy to the liberalization of the second-child policy; For example, raising wage levels allows companies to solve the problem of recruitment difficulties. “With reference to Germany, blue-collar workers rely on technology and their employment prospects are relatively good. The Chinese job seekers need to change their labor concepts most, which requires the correct guidance of the society.â€
At present, in order to ensure the stability of the employment of enterprises, enterprises have begun to invest more costs in the management of human resources. For example, some small manufacturing companies use long-term “apprenticeship†in core technology training, while some large listed companies specialize in building high-rise apartments, property houses, and supporting kindergartens to solve employee life problems. “Community park community, actual The above is an important means for corporate culture to attract talents. In the same year, the model of Shekou Industrial Zone was successful, and innovation in social management was obvious to all.†Gu Liji, managing director of the original Shekou Industrial Zone, said.
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